Andrew Seybold: Return of the Wireless Guru
JULY 25, 2001 1:00PM EDT - HOSTED BY: BIGTALK / WIRELESS WEEK
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Andrew Seybold: Good Morning! I am ready to start--I will start with the questions
that have already been submitted. Andy
ArmStar Communication Technologies Inc. Los Angeles: Hello Andrew, my name
is Richard Cranford (CEO ArmStar). What do -now- think of the (new) FCC.
Andrew Seybold: Richard--the NEW FCC has a lot to learn--on one hand they
want to be more friendly and on the other hand they are wrestling with many
issues--they need to be more aggressive when it comes to removing the
spectrum cap and getting more 3G spectrum into the pipeline.
S. Schwartz, Weston, Ct.: Do you still look favorably upon the small wireless
company, Infowave? The stock price has now dropped to C$1.00.
Andrew Seybold: I still like Infowave and I think that they next round of
annoucements will make a difference--they, like all wireless stocks are being
punished by the street because of the dot.com crisis
Chris, Durham, NC: We are developing technology that automates wireless
delivery, storage and management of rich multimedia content on portable
devices, such as PDAs, Pocket PC's and smartphones, that enables enterprise
and consumers to have easier access to content on today's networks and
beyond. We will complete our work in 4th quarter. What is your opinion on the
need and implementation of such a technology in the industry and how do you
see this changing things?
Andrew Seybold: The key word in your question is storage--we are not, in the US,
able to deliver wireless access anywhere--so we need to be able to work off-line
some of the time--I prefer to think of us as always on, sometimes connected.
Terry, Clearwater, FL: Dear Andy: If I were to start a new WISP right now what
should my three main focus areas be? Roaming controls; Product line;
Marketing?... Thanks for the help. Terry
Andrew Seybold: The answer is marketing, marketing and more marketing
Kevin Lansing, Michigan: Do you agree with Interdigitals claims of having
essential 3G patents, and what importance do you see WCDMA having in the
future of 2.5 and 3G as a standard
Andrew Seybold: This is an interesting question. I am not an attorney so I won't
comment on the IP issue--I will, however, comment in WCDMA--it was developed
to circumvent Qualcomm's IP--but it does not succeed in this. It turns out that
CDMA2000 is 115% more efficient for voice and 40% more efficent for data given
the same amount of spectrum--but the WCDMA camp won't admit that their
flavor of CDMA is not as good as CDMA2000.
Lonnie Naefke / Redondo Beach, CA: At a time when thousands of sites are
being tied up in the zoning approval phase due to aesthetic concerns of the
communities, Do you foresee a time when the industry will adopt a proactive
approach to concealment of the infrastructure to speed up deployment? Do you
believe individual states mandates will continue to grow in popularity? What do
you think will be the defining event that will trigger the wireless industries
acceptance of the wireless concealment industry?
Andrew Seybold: The issue of antenna siting is a difcult one--we all want to have
coverage but we don't want to have a tower in our back yard--there has to be
some compromise here--and I think concelling antennas, and site sharing are
both part of the answer.
Eric Rasmussen, Demver: How important do you think non light of sight
technologies will be to the fixed wireless players? What technologies will be
winners to solve the line of sight problem you think?
Andrew Seybold: I have heard the claims for non-line of sight technologies--I
have not seen any that really work. But if they do, they will be an important
addition to fixed wireless which I still believe is a huge potential market.
Ralph,Alpharetta,GA: What is going to happen to the NextWave spectrum? If
Cellular carriers who "won it in the auction" lose in end,what does it mean for the
industry?
Andrew Seybold: Ralph--I believe that Nextwave will keep its spectrum--I don't
think the actions by the FCC, nor the proposed actions by the winning bidders is
going to be enough to get this resolved. I also believe that Nextwave might have
a silent partner--AOL, MSN, Yahoo etc who has a desire to use the data only
network that Nextwave wants to build out.
Rudy, San Francisco, CA: Andrew, A number of platforms are developing in the
wireless marketplace, some are application focused, delivery content to various
handheld devices, with a location-based interface. Some are location-based with
strong spatial technology, with an application and content delivery interface. From
the viewpoint of the carriers, and also the application developers, do you see a
need to have robust features of both technologies on one platform, or do carriers
and application developers don't really care if they have to go to two sources for
the same technologies and feature sets?
Andrew Seybold: The entire issue of location based services is a hot topic--the
carriers are "afraid" of it, the technologies are diverse, and the industry is divided
on how to make it all work together--I am a strong believer in making things
work no matter where I am--if I have location based servcies in my home area I
want them when I travel and this is probably not going to be the case--at least in
the first round.
Jim Chesky, Portland Oregon: There is a tremendous amount of money being
spent on 3G, yet I see wireless industry per unit income under a lot of downward
price pressure. At this rate, how far down the road do we see a return on the 3G
investment?
Andrew Seybold: Great question--my answer is simple--if a carrier wants to be
successful with 3G services in the next few years they better be able to see a ROI
based on voice--data is incremental income--not primary income--look at
iMode--24 million users, at $25 per month--that is just 10% of NTT DoCoMos
monthly gross income
Steve Walter, Boston, MA: Andrew, When will we see wireless service offerings
based on genre, age, title? Also, when do you expect widespread adoption of
J2ME devices? Thank you
Andrew Seybold: I believe that we will see services offered by MTV, the GAP, etc
in the near future--as soon as Virtual Networks start being used in the US. This
will change the entire landscape. J2ME devices are already in use in Japan and
on the Nextel network--we need better data access and some compelling
applications in the US before there is a true demand for the products
Mikael Klug, Munich, Germany: Dear Mr Seybold! Enhanced handheld devices will
force the way to use new IP service "on air". Which wireless companies or
operators will lead in the 4G mobile generation battle?
Andrew Seybold: Mikael--we are not even into 3G services except in korea yet--I
want to see if carriers can make money on 3G services first--and what the
demand for high-speed data is--my bet is that those pushing 4G are going to
hurt the adoption of 3G systems.
Neal Jagoda , Atlanta, Ga: Can you please tell me your feelings on the
telematics industry? Do you feel the industry is moving to fast going towards
added services like infotainment, web, and e services in our automobiles, or do
you feel the timing is right?
Andrew Seybold: Telematics is a hot topic--the issues with moving ahead include
the amount of time it takes an auto maker to incorporate changes in their
vehicles, the benifits to the drivers--On-Star is struggling with renewals when
folks have to pay--there is, today, not much preceived value in the services--by
the way, Wingcast, the JV between Qualcomm and Ford beleives that Telematics
is only part of a more personal solution--On-Star and ATX stop deliverying
services once you leave your car--I think that is a mistake
Ajit S. Cacodar, Lafayette, LA: I can not see how it is possible for WCDMA with
asynch tech to support hand-offs now or in the future. Difficult if not impossible.
How can Nokia or Ericsson, etc implement WCDMA/5MHz on handset ASICs if they
could not get their cdmaOne ASICs to work. With 3G we have voice and data
traffic comingled. What is the end game here? Will cdma2000 dominate then?
Andrew Seybold: Ajit--I think that you will be proven correct--I don't believe that
WCDMA--built to circumvent Qualcomm's IP--is going to work as now defined--I
really believe that the WCDMA camp is going to find themselves behind the
technology curve and that they will have to go back and redesign their systems
to make them work.
Chuck Sizer Potomac, MD: Andy, What is AT&T Wireless doing with GSM? What is
their strategy longer term? Chuck Sizer
Andrew Seybold: AT&T has decided to support GSM/GPRS==their first system is
up and running in Seattle but there are no handsets available. It is my belief
that AT&T Wireless has set its sites on an impossible task--supporting 4 flavors
of data and 5 flavors of voice on two different radio bands.
Daniel, Toronto, ONT: When will the LMDS market be recoved? rumors: most
ISP's prefers non license (DSSS) for easy and fast deploy, your comment?
Andrew Seybold: I still believe in LMDS but no body has found the correct model
to deploy it yet. Unlicensed spectrum is ok but is not protectable, and therefore,
I believe, dangerous to be used by a company that is in the business of
providing servcie for payment
Fernando Castelblanco G., Mexico D.F.: Mr. Seybold, do you think that microwave
links in the U.S., for incumbent operators' communication sites, will be replaced
by fiber optics high speed links ? Who has the best market share of microwave
radios in the U.S , Alcatel, Harris or ... ?
Andrew Seybold: I cannot fully answer this question--but there are lots of sites
where there is no choice but to use MW radios--take a look at the mountians
around you
Bill, Chicago , Il: Dear Mr. Seybold; Many of the wireless companies have had
their stock prices "crashed" in the last 12 months. Are there any mutual funds
out there that you like which truly represent a wide range of wireless companies?
Thanks
Andrew Seybold: I don't give financial advice here--you would have to look at my
Forbes/Andrew Seybold newsletter for that type of advice
Dillard, Hagerstown MD: Andy, This is a long one but it is focused on 3g- I have
talked to a few carriers asking them what 3g means to them and they have said
nothing except bandwidth for voice. However, every VC firm is chasing 3g with
data applications and real time video. At the end of the day what will the
subscriber give up so the carrier can increase their arpu? Will moms give up
happy meals from McDonalds because their kids want to play video games on
mom's cell phone? Which carriers do you feel have the money to with stand this
migration? It looks like many US Carriers were running out of money until the
.com explosion and many carriers took a free ride on the "Wireless Internet."
Everyone thinks it was a failure but we all know it was a brilliant way for Sprint
and others to drive their stock upwards. It seems that were are repeating History
as far as spending the money on the 3g network such as the migration from
analog to digital in 97. What will be the next big killer application that will save a
carrier financially and how will they get their arpu to $98.00 to afford the new
infrastructure? By the way, there is no way that applications in the US will ever hit
critical mass until you separate the device from the service provider. Customer
Care costs will be prohibitive of both data and messaging in the states. This will
take years for carriers to change their old habits.
Andrew Seybold: I made a comment before--data is incremental income for the
carriers--and I don't believe that video is going to be affordable for some time to
come--I look at what technolies we use in the office and which ones we need to
deploy--how many of you use video in the office? How many of you use vidio
confercing on a regular basis? How can there be a business market for a wireless
service that is not in mainstream use in the office? Consumers won't buy services
first, business users will.
Randy Anderson, Ashburn, VA: "Unified Communications" seems to have so
many definitions. What are the key elements for this type of service for wireless
applications? When do you foresee the demand for these services taking place?
Thanks for your time.
Andrew Seybold: Sorry--I lost the link for a moment--To me Unified
Communications or mesasging means that no matter what mobile tool I have, a
pay phone or the best and fastest wireless connection, I can get to ALL of my
information--business and private, and take action on anything I need to
Dave - York Harbor, Maine: Any thoughts on InterDigital Communications?
Thanks.
Andrew Seybold: Not a company I have been following--sorry
Steve Hulaj, Windsor, Ontario: J2ME continues to be viewed by som as the "holy
grail" platform for wireless development, however mfrs around the globe have
already killed it with mobile device specific extensions, thereby negating this as a
write once run anywhere (even when not in coverage) platform. So now we have
Palm, EPOC, Win CE, RIM, Pagewriter's, etc etc. Nextair Corporation
(www.nextair.com) has a technology called AIRIX that supports the transmission
of XML data, but also wraps parts of the application into the XML. They call it
ARML. This ARML works with a virtual machine on a device, so you can define,
design and deploy (wirelessly no less) an application on any platform, so that it
runs on and off-line. Is this the next wave, and could this really be the "holy
grail". Thanks
Andrew Seybold: I will look at this--but I believe that both J2ME and BREW will be
the most important products moving forward--but we have not even discussed
virus issues on the wireless networks--watch what the hackers to do us in the
wireless world!!
Steve, Annapolis, MD: Good afternoon Mr. Seybold. I am interested in hearing
your thoughts regarding the separation of church and state (aka voice and data).
As many new 'solutions' overlay data on voice, the cost for simple transmission
of data does not pencil. In your opinion, what existing or future technologies do
you believe will provide the most efficient, cost-effective 'solution' for the
data-only world? Is the answer in the spectrum?
Andrew Seybold: Steve--Here are my thoughts--I think that voice and data mix
as we learn more about data requirements--but if there is a big demand for data
then voice and data need to be separated. If I were to deploy a network today I
would use CDMA20001x to offer both voice and data and where data demand
was strong I would add cdma2000 1x EV for Data only services. Even NTT
DoCoMo says that data costs on their WCDMA network will be 1.8 times that of
voice
Jill Stevens Raleigh NC: What's the latest on EDGE? How significant are the
advances of Tropian's Timestar?
Andrew Seybold: I, for one, still do not believe the EDGE will ever be deployed as
a commerical technology.
Dave from York Harbor, ME: Update on 3G standards process? Thanks.
Andrew Seybold: Dave- this is a long, long question there is a religious war going
on between the various camps--Nokia is making some blatantly wrong
statements, and others are not clean either--we know that cdma2000 1x works
because there are three networks up and running in Korea, and several in the US
in trials. WCDMA is not commerical yet so we don't have anything to compare
against--the bottom line? There will not be a single standard and the handset
vendors will solve the problem with a single handset that does GSM/GRPS,
CDMA2000, and WCDMA so I don't think it really matters--there is NO winner
here-
John Fresco, Miami, FL: The new Sony-Ericsson venture seems to be very
important change in the cellular handset scene. What will it bring to the market?
Andrew Seybold: Sony knows how to market to consumers--I think we will see
some neat phones from them--however, in the future any company that wants to
market a phone will be able to do so--MTV, Yahoo, AOL, all will have branded
phones and all will be offering service plans--I believe that the "major" handset
vendors will find out that Brand does not matter going forward
Judith Lockwood Purcell, Wireless Week: Hello Andy--Nice to have you on BigTalk
again. Please quantify the effect that current economic conditions are having on
enterprise data uptake and provide a couple of specific examples.
Andrew Seybold: Judith--we have just completed a survey--the results are still
being tabultated but I can share with you that 65% of the CTO's we talked to
have NOT reduced their budgets for wireless and a small percentage have
increased theirs. Which makes the most sense--cutting workers means that there
is more of a demand for wireless voice and data services--we just have not been
able to convey that message to CTO's effecively
Jon, Indianapolis, Indiana: I would like to know of any studies done on cellular
communication and its effect on society.
Andrew Seybold: I am not familiar with any--but check the CTIA web-site
wow-com.com
Bart CA: What is the status of EDGE? Is it likely to be implemented in GSM and
TDMA systems?
Andrew Seybold: As I said before I don't believe that EDGE will ever be deployed
as a commerical technology. The GSM and TDMA worlds will move directly to
WCDMA
Dave Hochman, New York City: Whats your take on ventures that are getting into
offering solutions that enable live video streaming over wireless devices? I know
at the 2001 JavaOne Conference, Motorola was showing it on phones operating
over Nextel's 2.5G iDen network.
Andrew Seybold: Show me a compelling reason for doing so--not just that it can
be done--but a real, compelling reason that I want it and am willing to pay for
it--and tell me what the carriers cost of delivering it is--How many voice calls do I
replace with the data? If a voice call is 10 cents a minute and I have to replace
90 voice calls for one video session where is the economic sense?
Chris: Portland, OR: In your opinion, which wireless protocol (CDMA, GSM, etc) will
have the fastest ability to transition into 3G and why?
Andrew Seybold: This will also answer the previous question--CDMA2000 has the
best migration path to 3G--you can build out voice and data with cdma2000 1x
and then add cdma2000 1x EV for data only--GSM systems with GPRS won't
handle more than about 50 Kpbs of data--WCDMA handles voice and data but
not as effectively as CDMA2000-the bottom line--if you have lots of spectrum it
does not really matter what technology you use--if you are spectrum constrained
then you pick the most efficient one--CDMA2000
Jim Chesky, Portland Oregon: While I see the technology of wireless improving
almost daily, the number one complaint of wireless users still remains
COVERAGE. In your opinion are wireless operators building coverage in proportion
to the demand?
Andrew Seybold: Coverage is expensive--and there are lots of carriers--it is
important to understand that in the rest of the world the first wireless carriers
were state owned--they built great coverage becasue they were not worried about
an ROI, just on providing services--when they got competition their competitors
had to match the coverage--in the US we built systems that were private from the
start--so the system were built for outdoor, business populations--the carriers
still have not realized that data requires both in and outdoor coverage--and
adding this coverage is expensive
Paul deLeclerc, Arlington, VA: With the coming advent of 3G technology, it
appears as though the cellular world will be either CDMA2000 or WCDMA. What is
your forecast for TDMA (IS-136)? Is it a "dying" standard?
Andrew Seybold: TDMA is more efficient than GSM on a per MHz basis--but it is
not a 3G technology and unless EDGE appears which I doubt--it will continue to
be used for voice for a long time--just because we are building 3G networks does
not mean we are going to tear down exisiting digital networks
Stephanie, NYC: Could you please tell me what you expect the roll out of
802.11b to look like? Do you believe that this technology in anyway parallels 3G?
Andrew Seybold: I love 802.11B--I use it all of the time--my best wireless
communications scenerio is to have a combo 802.11B and cdma2000 1x card for
my use--the companies rolling it out are small and cash constrained and the
802.11a camp is coming on strong--I hope that a major company gets behind
in-building 802.11b deployment
Roy B: What additional changes do you forsee with the recent announcement
made by Motorola regarding selling proprietary wireless information?
Andrew Seybold: YOu make money any way you can--IP is a good source of
income
Wireless Viewer: How long until vendors will be able sell thin client mobile
hardware or software for applications for use on wide area wireless networks and
maintain any level of a conscience? The coverage of networks is still spotty at
best, the speeds are still slow, and the cost is still exponentially higher than
dial-up. I understand an occasional business function which may be useable as a
thin client, but for the most part "always on line" technology is not suitable for
supporting useful mobile worker applications beyond an occasional lookup.
Andrew Seybold: Thin clients mean that you have a network connection almost
anywhere you go--in Europe and Asia this works, in the US it does not--WAP is a
perfect example of a thin client that has failed--in the US if you cannot use a
device unless it is connected to a wireless network it is not a great user
experience--we need storage and the ability to work off line
David Pittsburgh PA: What is the role for content transformation services?
Andrew Seybold: With better data speeds and new technology many companies
will question the need for content transformation--they want to provide "web
surfing" wirelessy--the companies who succeed will understand that our mobile
data needs are VERY different than our fixed needs--content transformation
companies that can get me data without ever using a wireless browser will win this
one
Joanne - Irvine, CA: How do you think the field of telematics will be like in the
next few years?
Andrew Seybold: Messy, competitive, and slow on the uptake--this industry is
searching for compelling reasons for consumers to pay for it--but it has great
potential once we get it right
Ashish, Toronto: Hi Andrew, It is a known fact that if cell phones are used in
airplanes they could cause heavy congestion on the base stations on earth. Are
you aware of any groups that are working on using Smart Antenna technology at
Base Stations to solve this problem?
Andrew Seybold: I do not know of any--
Patrick B, Vienna, VA: How do you foresee industry consolidation to progress over
the next 5 years?
Andrew Seybold: I think, at least in the US the model changes when we have our
next auctions--I think AOL, MSN, Yahoo, and others become partners with the
carriers, I think Virtual Private networks become common and I think that we will
have a few nationwide providers but many, many companies selling devices and
services on these networks
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