Andrew Seybold: Return of the Wireless Guru cont'd....
Daphne Lee, NYC, NY: For the past week or so, we've been hearing that Motorola
is posting a loss, Nokia's profit is down, Ericsson reports how challenging it is etc.
How do you view the handsets industry to be in the next half of this year? And
especially with the current economic situation in the US, with consumers being
wary with buying new handsets or subscribing to new plans, would this cause a
further dent to the handsets industry. Where do you see this industry moving?
What technolgy do you think is the hottest for handsets?
Andrew Seybold: The handset industry is going to have a rough time until two
things happen--first, the new voice and data networks have to be in place and
secondly there has to be a reason for voice users to buy a new phone--it is all
about creating a reason for folks to upgrade
Kristine, NY, NY: What are your predictions on AT&T Wireless's viability given
they're recent spinoff and earnings announcement? How does their business
plans stack up against Verizon, Sprint and Cingular?
Andrew Seybold: I have written a lot about AT&T and what I call their Rube
Goldberg approach to their wireless strategy or lack there of--I think that they
are going to find themselves in a lot of trouble trying to please Wall Street, NTT
DoCoMo, their big investor, and their customers. They are trying to be all things
to all of these and I Don't believe that they can pull it off
Kristine, NY, NY: What is your opinion on Qualcomm's descision not to proceed
with their spinoff? What are the implications there as to the viability of BREW
becoming widely adopted off?
Andrew Seybold: Qualcomm's stated reason for keeping the Semi group is that
they now have cross licenses--I think their keeping the group is smart but I for
one was hoping to buy some stock!!
Bruce Nadelson Lambertville NJ: Hutchison and Vodaphone seem to be going
head to head, with Vodaphone slowing and Hutchison going all out toward 3G.
Hutchison also seems to be WCDMA/cdma2000 agnostic. What do you expect of
this competition?
Andrew Seybold: This is going to be interesting to watch--I think that Vodafone
as finally gotten it--3G is NOT about making a fortune with data it is about
paying for a network with voice users and making incrementatal income with data
services--Hutchison is still dreaming of a high percentage of data profits
Robert Solomon, Burlingame, CA: Hi Andy. In your opinion, what is or will be the
key to present or future mobile/wireless solutions that you expect will most likely
impact the utilities/energy industry as we have identified it as a significant
vertical market for mobility product vendors, and do you plan on joining us at our
annual MobileEXPO Utilities Forum in Mesa, AZ October 1-4?
Andrew Seybold: No answer to this one
Dick Kranzmann, Eatonton, GA: Andrew Nice of you to be here today. I have 2
questions. 1. It would seem that the major wireless industry vendors...Lucent.
Nortel, Ericsson, Nokia...all are in for a continuing rough period ahead. Can you
comment on the expected rate of innovation in the industry given to substantial
cut backs we have seen? 2. In recent articles you seem to favor cdma2000 as
the best technology path to success. Please comment on the reasons why more
operators have not embraced this technology and what could be done to help
more operators "see the light". Thanks.
Andrew Seybold: Ok--first, the down turn is partly because of the dot.com crash,
partly because of the NasDaq fear of the technology sector and partly because all
of these companies beleived that the Internet's success would translate to the
Wireless Internet's success--and that this would be an easy sell to consumes.
The good news is that these companies now realize that this is NOT about the
Wireless Internet--that being an extension of the existing Internet but rather
about getting information--not surfing--and that it will take longer and be more
expensive to make work--the new plans, based on reality this time, not FUD, are
positive and I believe that the Wireless Economy will rebound faster than the
Nasdaq CDMA2000 is the best, most specturlly efficient technology commerically
available today--but Quaclomm is the Microsoft of the Wireless Industry--the
company that everybody loves to hate--I don't understand it, and if I were a
stock holder in a carrier that was going in a different direction I would ask some
long, hard questions--in the US, espeicaly, where we are not going to get more
spectrum anytime soon, it makes no sense not to make use of a technology that
is the most specturally efficient--and no, I am NOT on Qualcomm's payroll, and
No I do not own lots of Qualcomm's stock!!!
Karen Jones, Arlington, VA: Is it possible for Wi-Fi to subsume PCS/cellular?
What are PCS/Cellular players doing to thrwart the competitive threat?
Andrew Seybold: I think that 802.11B is best as a augmentation to 3G wireless
services--I don't think it is a competitive threat but is a local, last 300 foot
solution
Andrew Seybold: Well, I have enjoyed this today--I hope you have as well.
WirelessWeek have asked me to do this on a monthly basis and I have agreed,
so see you all next month!!! Andy Seybold
wirelessweek.com |
