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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: stockman_scott who wrote (39390)	7/26/2001 10:27:34 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) of 65232

I side with TeleChoice who says "fiber glut is baloney" Merrill Lynch uses some broad strokes in its claims got a friend (former Digital colleague) who worked in fiberoptic studies for several months recently he pointed out a simple trap flaw in most glut arguments you cannot calculate supply as dark fiber + lit fiber simple fallacy dark fiber is not part of capacity in a true sense in order to lite up dark fiber, one needs to purchase lasers, modulators, amplifiers, switches, micromirrors, the works which means dark fiber is akin to a cleared forest path where a road might someday get built with pavement, shoulders, onramps, signs, interchanges, the works this friend claims that by 2002 we will begin to see fiberoptic bandwidth shortages again the website growth rate is astounding the internet usage growth rate is astounding the move from old to new in voice traffic is unstoppable the dark fiber will need to be lit dark fiber represents the biggest misconception in telecom today was Merrill Lynch trying to get Uniphaz under 10 or Ciena below 30 ??? I am convinced 75% of brokerage research is garbage but some is good / jim

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