I don't see any ambiguity in this statement which is directly from EMC's worldwide growth forecast through 2005. The following are EMC's stated assumptions when crunching future numbers.
* All members of population are assumed to have at least one cellular subscription from the age of five upwards.
Let's test my reading comprehension. "All" means everyone. "Five year olds" means kids who have attained the age of five. With me so far? "Assumed" means that it is the basis for the prognostication. "One cellular account" is a bit ambiguous, but probably means Mom and Pop have bought a cell phone for little Muffy unless she has a Snap Track pendant on her baby bracelet, which is unlikely.
How many millions of five year olds will be in existence in 2005? Do you think all Third World five year olds will have their own cellular account? Including the ones whose family's annual income doesn't exceed $1,000? How many of them, in reality, will have a cellular account? Damned few of them, in my view.
Of course, EMC used its judgment in making the forecast, and the general thrust of the actually published numbers might be in the range of what may take place, but, for crying out loud, why make and publish such silly assumptions to folks who pay $1,500 only to learn that EMC counts five-year-olds with cell phones when making future forecasts? They're nothing but fodder for folks like me who have finely tuned sense of the ridiculous and a burning desire to pop balloons which have been inflated with huge doses of hot air.
More than 2 billion isn't conservative, and it's unlikely to happen by 2005, in my opinion. Watch for future downward revisions based upon uncertain worldwide economic conditions that may not be resolved for a year or two.
Two billion, plus, will happen but it is unlikely to occur by 2005. Unless European chimps become part of the assumptions which, given recent news and the general nature of the forecasters' assumptions, is not entirely out of the question.
In the meantime, EMC has given me a chance to tweak noses, and I'm grateful for that. |
