Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 262.92

+0.4%

Dec 29 3:59 PM EST

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (49840)	7/26/2001 7:00:35 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 70976

I think it would be rational to adjust the '98 lows for an improvement in the balance sheets, cash, working capital, and book. I think it would be worth a discusssion. When I set up my price ranges, I set the bottom to be the adjusted '96 and '98 lows, approximately. When you wonder why things seemed so bleak in '98, consider profits and losses. Losses and the prospect of continuing losses without an obvious end, drove the prices down. Relative prices within the sector were pretty reasonable so complete panic was absent. We have had a precipitous fall in orders since last summer, but backlog has kept the leaders profitable. If orders stay down another 4 quarters, this will not be the case and I expect prices to fall toward the bottom of my range. It is looking more and more likely that orders will stay down until the middle of 2002.

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