<<Ok, now that I have that mapped out, what is the normal relationship of a wave 1 to a wave 3?>>
Wave 3 is rarely shorter than wave 1, is often slightly longer, and can be no more than 7 times as long.
<<Wave 2 = 25 points currently, could be 30ish?
Wave 3 = XXX points?>>
There's been a change in the Matrix. Today's continued rally after the a.m. pullback converts the SPX rally off Tuesday's late day low into a 5 wave impulse move... Not a 3 wave corrective. The highest probability count continues to have the July 2nd beginning of the 5th wave from May's highs, with 1 of 5 completing at the 7/11 low, and now has us in 2 of 5 since. a of 2 completed at the 7/19 high, b of 2 at the 7/24 low, and we've been in the c of 2 rally since late Tuesday. c waves are 5 wave impulses waves, and if you check your intraday chart since Tuesday's lows, you should see 5 waves either nearing or already complete at today's highs. If they're not complete yet, and an extension occurs, the 7/2 highs would be the max distance for the rally, with a fizzle at the 77% retracement area (1222spx) more likely. THEN we begin wave 3.
<<If I follow this correctly, wave 3 needs to hit a minimum of 1151 SPX. Then the wave four bounce, and wave five lower which does not have to be lower than 1151. Am I right on that?>>
Wave 3 may or may not make it to 1151 but should drop well through 1168, and the wave 4 bounce should hold at wave 1's bottom (1168.46 on 7/11). Then wave 5's decline will finish off this 5 wave set from 7/2's beginning, which finishes off the 5 wave set from 5/22's highs, which finishes off the 5 wave set from 9/1/00's highs, Which completes wave A in a multi-year ABC corrective. B wave rally to follow into next year, which should be as impressive as the 1932-38 B wave rally.
So accurately shorting the markets into the final lows of this A wave should net some nice spare change, and the coming B wave rally will be an absolute bonanza. The rally we're now in is one of the last "it's the bottom" counterfeits, and when the real bottom is in, no one will really rush to call it or want to play it as the boy cried "wolf" a few times too many.
The Nasdaq is also in a 5 wave impulse move lower off the 5/22 highs, but the best count has it in an Ending Diagonal rather than standard impulse, with 1 completing at the 6/20 low, 2 at the 7/2 highs, 1 of 3 at the 7/11 lows, and 2 of 3 in process, with a of 2 ending at the 7/13 high, b of 2 at the 7/24 low, and c of 2 is in progress, and looks like it has a few more days to complete. Higher highs aren't necessary but may come, and downside progress will be nil until the 5 waves of c of 2 are finished. 3 of c has extended. |
