Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? Message Board

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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?

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Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

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To: Mad2 who wrote (3451)	7/27/2001 1:16:17 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) of 3543

Hi Mad2, Oh, I well remember that article. Too well... But I've also heeded the warnings contained therein, and totally avoided tech in the intervening months... After today's extremely glum report from JDSU, on the surface, they look like a good play right now. But I suspect that at absolute best, they're "dead money" for the next several quarters, if not actually establishing a new and much lower trading range. In theory, they could be trading about 50% down from here ( in the $3.50 to $5.00 range). But their zero debt level will likely become an insurance policy against that happening. I expect their top line revenue levels to drop as much as 30% to 50% over the next few quarters, and wouldn't at all be surprised by negative earnings in the short term. That said, I still think that long term, JDSU will be one of the tech survivors. Right now, it's merely a case of choosing your entry point, how long do you want to hold, and how much pain can you stomach... KJC

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