You posted, "Cary Salsberg at Jul 26, 2001 10:37 PM
I was here two or three months ago and fewer people agreed. "
So I went back for months and planned to read several months to understand or support the idea I had concerning the talk on the thread a few months back. But after reading as few as two weeks worth, I found it hard work.
So below are numerous post speaking in the $20 - $35 range. Some of our favorite posters are included.
Stan
To:advocatedevil who wrote (44219)From: Riechers Wednesday, Mar 21, 2001 2:55 PMView Replies (2) | Respond to of 49882
We have a long way to go before the bottom is found here. The denial is palpable when there are still clowns out there foolish enough to buy bad news. See ya in the low $20s
To:michael97123 who wrote (44228)From: Riechers Wednesday, Mar 21, 2001 3:14 PMView Replies (1) | Respond to of 49882
Didn't know clown was off limits on the AMAT thread. Let me re phrase.
Smart investors should always buy when there is bad news especially when it is only canceled orders and eroding book to bill ratios. See you in the low $20.
To:Shoibal Datta who wrote (44300)From: Jacob Snyder Thursday, Mar 22, 2001 3:10 PMView Replies (2) | Respond to of 49882
It is exactly that volatility which makes this a good trading stock. There is a constant tug of war, with abrupt changes in short-term sentiment between:
Fear: fear that the stocks are still overvalued, that we are in a bear market, that demand for chips will continue to slump, semi capex budgets will continue to get steadily cut, bookings will continue to fall fast, and AMAT will, one day, abruptly drop to 20.
Greed: greed, because everyone knows the longterm story is intact, the rebound is inevitable at some point, and everyone wants to be on board for the next time the stock zooms to all-time highs
To:Rick Storm who wrote (44308)From: Demosthenes Thursday, Mar 22, 2001 3:43 PMView Replies (1) | Respond to of 49882
<<; and the low for applied will be 39>>
The low was 34 and a fraction set on 12/21. For AMAT to get to 20 that Jacob wistfully hopes for, it would have to fall about 60% from here. But by then he may say it will fall (abruptly?;-) to 10.
D
To:Demosthenes who wrote (44311)From: Jacob Snyder Thursday, Mar 22, 2001 4:22 PMRespond to of 49882
No, actually, I've posted repeatedly that I will begin buying LEAPs when/if AMAT hits 35. I was just pointing out the tug-of-war between fear and greed. The only way AMAT hits 20, IMO, is if we get a recession worse than anything in the last 50 years.
To:Paul V. who wrote (44538)From: Gottfried Monday, Mar 26, 2001 10:19 AMView Replies (1) | Respond to of 49883
Paul, [edited] replying to your post on the CSCO thread. You said...
Can I deduce from what you have said,"Paul, AMAT's equipment takes a long time to build, install and get running, so companies that look to next year might order soon. Customers can delay ordering equipment from CSCO until shortly before they need it. So I think AMAT will lead and there's more time to buy CSCO," that AMAT will not hit the lows that we have anticipated based on the BTB and that CSCO can post a turnaround quicker?
Looking at our charts we should have hit the lows in July/August coming.
Semi equipment bookings low by July [reported in August] is pretty much consensus now. How that relates to AMAT stock price from now till then is not clear. I still think we have seen the stock price low in Dec. But, looking at price vs bookings, the two past cycles charted showed another price drop when btb hit the low.
I have no data for CSCO, but my guess is it could drop further. It has not established a trading band. From another post...
>I was looking for a Cisco inventory number for Solectron and I believe it's over 2 billion dollars. When I confirm, I'll post< Message 15563463
Check this guy's profile. He's in the biz and seems reliable. The actual number is less important than the fact there is an inventory issue between CSCO and ECMs.
Gottfried
To:Jacob Snyder who wrote (44619)From: advocatedevil Wednesday, Mar 28, 2001 1:00 AMRespond to of 49884
RE: "The BigNameAnalysts seem to be working overtime to pump up stocks."
Jacob, I was glancing over AMAT First Call earnings estimates for the last few months: Number of brokers recommending as "Strong Buy" increased from 4 to 9, and as "Moderate Buy" increased from 5 to 12. However, there is one rogue analyst out there who's bucking the trend: "Princeton, New Jersey, Feb. 14 (Bloomberg Data) -- Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT US) was reiterated ''sell'' by analyst Susan R Crossley at Wells Fargo Van Kasper. The price target is $29.00 per share." I believe Susan is gumming up the works and preventing AMAT from trading at lower levels. <g>
AdvocateDevil
To:Gottfried who wrote (44695)From: michael97123 Thursday, Mar 29, 2001 12:17 PMRespond to of 49885
G, Big question for me is whether amat will break out from these levels or from $35 after a dive?. m.
To:Gottfried who wrote (44723)From: advocatedevil Thursday, Mar 29, 2001 4:31 PMView Replies (2) | Respond to of 49885
RE: "Maybe AMAT will go to 35 or lower. Maybe not. But it will go much higher eventually in concert with rising bookings. No doubt about that at all."
I agree, only I feel a little bit stronger than most that we're headed lower before the eventual ride back up. I expect that there will be a short play in the future that I'll take a beating on, but if I can build up my reserves in the mean time, and stick to my loss limits, I doubt I'll miss much of the ride.
AdvocateDevil
To:Gottfried who wrote (44846)From: Sam Citron Friday, Mar 30, 2001 8:26 PMView Replies (1) | Respond to of 49885
it's good to hear you are planning to buy.
AMAT scale down from 35 to 25.
To:Sam Citron who wrote (44865)From: Gottfried Friday, Mar 30, 2001 10:36 PMView Replies (1) | Respond to of 49885
Sam, I see: Cary plans to buy from 35 to 25. The 25 rings a bell because the last two cycle bottoms were around 25 if you ignore brief down spikes. That ignores splits.
briefcase.yahoo.com
>SEMIcharts
To:advocatedevil who wrote (44941)From: Gottfried Tuesday, Apr 3, 2001 1:37 AMView Replies (1) | Respond to of 49885
ad, there are many who have stated 35 is their entry target. So why should it go there? Unless Applied has some skeletons in the closet, like CSCO is thought to have.
Gottfried
To:Gottfried who wrote (44942)From: advocatedevil Tuesday, Apr 3, 2001 3:30 AMRespond to of 49885
Gottfried, I suspect that $35 may simply reflect a reasonable midpoint between upside and downside risk based on fair valuation and long term growth rates. I agree with some analysts who have been somewhat amazed that AMAT has been holding in the $40 to $50 range in the midst of the continuing semi slide. The stock appears to have been a tech safe haven up until very recently. I think it has been an easy decision for investors to redeploy their semi money into AMAT when specific holdings were dropping. Now as everything in the sector is tanking, AMAT's status becomes less appealing due to its relative valuation and the attraction of bargain play alternatives. Interestingly, $35 is within a point of the 52 week low, although I doubt that a retest has much to do with current analyst target determinations. AdvocateDevil
To: who started this subjectFrom: Gottfried Tuesday, Apr 3, 2001 1:50 PMView Replies (2) | Respond to of 49885
target prices all over the map [for entertainment only]...
biz.yahoo.com
High Target $100.00
Mean Target $59.50
Median Target $57.50
Low Target $29.00
Number of
Brokers 8
To:StanX Long who wrote (44977)From: Cary Salsberg Tuesday, Apr 3, 2001 6:22 PMRespond to of 49885
FWIW: executed a GTC limit order and bought XLNX at $31. Second XLNX purchase.
I am hoping that NVLS, LLTC, and MXIM hit $35 and ALTR $18, tomorrow.
For those who are wondering about when the bottom will occur and when to commit cash, just wait until AMAT enters the $35-25 range. AMAT will be the last tech stock standing.
I don't follow this advice because I am not 100% certain and I would rather commit and see the market lower. I have little ability to chase on the upside.
To:Jerome who wrote (45038)From: Shoibal Datta Wednesday, Apr 4, 2001 2:49 PMView Replies (2) | Respond to of 49885
Funny coincidence - Four people I talked to today are waiting to buy Cisco at 10, AMAT at 25. The nice round 10 Cisco number is interesting. When so many people are fixated on it, does that mean the stock is likely to gravitate towards it or stay away from it? Should I put my order in for 10 1/64 or 9 60/64?
To:mitch-c who wrote (44992)From: Jacob Snyder Wednesday, Apr 4, 2001 3:20 PMView Replies (3) | Respond to of 49885
ST trading, and other random thoughts: Well, it looks like I played it exactly wrong on this latest move, getting out of all my shorts/puts just as the market was peaking and about to collapse. Oh, well. Looks like the supply of investors willing to buy at 40 is now exhausted. Meanwhile, a lot of people want out of stocks, out of techs, at any price, so the selling pressure continues. The low volume, as we sink well below 40, indicates the stock is not going to make a stand here, unlikely we bounce up and re-establish support. The semi-equips relative strength is gone. My guess is this is happening now, because the market is giving up on any economic recovery in 2001. If end-demand for things with chips in them doesn't pick up until 2002, then semi-equip bookings are nowhere near bottoming, it's likely they continue to slide all through 2001. Now the debate will be whether demand picks back up in the first or second half of 2002. CNBC in the background, murmuring:LU denies bankrupcy rumoursmargin calls increasingCSCO market cap below 100B nowNasdaq almost 70% off its highs I've said for a long time, that I would start buying AMAT LEAPs when the stock hit 35. That looks like it's going to happen soon. However, I am re-considering. I know, I know, this looks like I'm lowering my buy-in price as the price goes down, so I'll never quite buy. My reasons are:1. this economic downturn looks like it's going to last a long time. Until this January, I was hoping for a soft landing. Now, I think a recession (which hasn't started yet) is inevitable.2. there are other very high-quality techs with equally good LT prospects, available at lower valuations. Using P/S, AMAT is nowhere near the 1996, or even the 1998, lows. It looks like NTAP and CSCO are going to be single-digit stocks soon, and I think I'd rather put money into them (at those prices), than put money into AMAT (at 35).3. I would rather hold 2004 than 2003 LEAPs, and the 2004s won't be available till the end of May.4. time premiums for options are very high now, due to the market's volatility. If we get a recession, the semi-equips will probably put in a bottoming pattern lasting may months, and that horizontal pattern should reduce option time premiums.
To:Joseph Beltran who wrote (45047)From: Jacob Snyder Wednesday, Apr 4, 2001 3:54 PMView Replies (1) | Respond to of 49885
ST trading
Yes, I think there is a good chance (not a certainty) that the 40-50 (or 34-54) horizontal channel of the last 5 months, is about to change into a new pattern. Impossible to tell, right now, what that pattern will look like. At some point, another trading range will be established. Maybe we're just going to widen the current trading range a bit. Maybe we're going to establish a new range, with 40 as the top of the range.
To:Jacob Snyder who wrote (45048)From: Gottfried Wednesday, Apr 4, 2001 3:59 PMView Replies (1) | Respond to of 49885
Jacob, my buying last week was a mistake but I'll live with it. That 34 support of last Dec wasn't very strong because it was so brief. Keeping powder dry.
Gottfried
To:Richard Palm who wrote (45053)From: Jacob Snyder Wednesday, Apr 4, 2001 4:30 PMView Replies (1) | Respond to of 49885
As a deep cyclical, AMAT's trailing 12M EPS often peaks just as the stock troughs, which distorts the PE. As I've said many times, I value AMAT using P/S. Cary uses P/B, or estimates future price as a multiple of peak earnings. At a P/S of 2, AMAT would be at a stock price of 20 (not a prediction, just a statement about valuation). Trough P/S of 2 is quite reasonable. In 1998, the trough P/S was 2.2, and that was with no recession looming.
To:Jacob Snyder who wrote (45043)From: Cary Salsberg Wednesday, Apr 4, 2001 6:10 PMView Replies (1) | Respond to of 49885
Jacob,
Your reasons for not buying are the reasons AMAT will get to $35 and below.
By the way, CSCO has $.66/share cash while AMAT has $4.86. I own both AMAT and CSCO and I like AMAT in the $25-35 range more than CSCO at $13. In fact, I am buying more AMAT and just holding CSCO after the small "round-up." I think that relative size, competive position, barriers to entry, and fundamental technology make AMAT the strongest competitor in technology. Its Achilles heel is the highly cyclical nature of its market, but that is an opportunity we can manage and prosper from.
To:Cary Salsberg who wrote (45070)From: Cary Salsberg Wednesday, Apr 4, 2001 6:30 PMRespond to of 49885
Philosophy:
Buy low, sell high BUT you can't buy at the bottom or sell at the top!
I repeat this to myself many times, these days. It is hard to buy low and it is hard to sell high. It is even harder, possibly impossible, to buy at the bottom or sell at the top.
I believe the sell orders I executed last year were much more important than the actual buy prices this year. If I buy AMAT at $25-35 and It falls to $10-20, it won't matter too much as long as I sell it near $100 again, next time.
In these times, one must have confidence in the companies one buys. I picked companies that I know, that are leaders, and that have a track record in good times and bad.
AMAT, NVLS, KLAC, ASML LLTC, MXIM, ALTR, XLNX
I follow at least 50 other companies closely and I know about many others, but, in these times, I can only buy 8 and sleep at night.
To:Gottfried who wrote (45078)From: Jerome Thursday, Apr 5, 2001 12:04 AMRespond to of 49885
AMAT, in contrast, has had just its normal cyclical correction - and a mild one at that.
Yep that's true. We will probably know more about the matter in a few days.I'd feel better if AMAT and NVLS stayed in their assigned trading range as identified by numerous on this board. I don't wanna hear all that hypothetical B* S* about AMAT getting to the low 30's just to please some ones hypothetical buy in price.
Jerome |
