I believe that within the next two months, the Feds will be done reducing rates, historically, the feds don't like to have the rate at only 1% to 2% percent above inflation (I won't go into that here), so as the perception that economic well being is coming back, and trumpeting that once more, the Feds engineered a "soft landing" (avoiding a recession), the feds will start and first, indicates that "inflation dangers outweigh economic slow down dangers", and then actually act upon it, that will cool off (more rapidly than last time for various reasons) the then nascent bull market, IMTO. Other parameters (such as strung out consumers, falling dollar, debt, and a dip into the red on the budget front), will possibly give birth to another bear phase.
Zeev |
