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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 687.86-0.4%4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who wrote (80931)7/27/2001 2:19:37 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
to join in, in 12-14 months, current Fed errors crop up again

they overtightened in 1999/2000
when the natural Post-Y2K Effect wouldve taken care of heated economy
when they misread the inflation threat, equating fast growth with unavoidable inflation
thus now a brutal stock bear market

they must now overease in 2001 to avoid economic recession
thus next year a minor inflation flare
from far too much monetary stimulus with money supply

if energy adds to the heat, then expect more than a minor inflation flare
either way the Fed will again react like the DRUNK DRIVER we know and hate
and raise interest rates with talk of "pre-emptive action"

by July-Oct 2002, expect the Fed to tighten
JUST LIKE IN 1994, after they way way overeased in 1992-93
with no economic recession seen in 1994
but plenty of investor pain

/ Jim
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