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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 690.270.0%Dec 26 4:00 PM EST
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (80930)7/27/2001 2:57:50 PM
From: Boplicity  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
I agree with you to a point. With CSCO apparently on the accusation path again, win xp, the normal year end rally and all the hints we are getting from cellular sector to contract manufactures they are setting up for an anticipation rally this fall into winter only to find out that the reason for the rally was hollow to begin with. I disagree on the level though. I have hard time seeing 4000 being made on a anticipation rally alone, we will need evidenced, which will be slow in coming and weak from lack of the next big thing and continued over capacity as you stated. IMHO. I also feel the normal late summer to fall selling will be muted this year for obvious reason so I differ on you call to visit 1800's again during August. In other words, if the current earning season couldn't pull the market down, then why should the seasonally weakness be able too? This year the normal fall selling will lack the normal teeth like most years with funds already sold down.

re: I think that late in the summer of next year, rates worries might very well be the trigger of the beginning of another bear market

could you expand on that, such as too high or not enough room to move them lower?

B
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