The only problem with that assumption is that once a euphoric mood sets in, valuations measures are thrown out of the window. Liquidity will drive the market, no to crazy valuations as early last year, but "crazy enough". The Naz may turn to a "roaring bull" once the 2500 area is taken, that bull move could ad 50% from that point (not until next year), that would get us a move to just under 3800. My "model" for the top of next year bull (3800/4200) allows simply for another 10% overshoot, and believe me, if and when we will be there, talk about next year's earning being valued at a PE of 40, will not be uncommon, since after all, they will expect the like of JDSU, INTC and MSFT to resume 40% growth. Rude awakening later in 2002/03.
In the meanwhile, here and now, the Dow is retesting for the fourth time the 10400 level, will it hold above it? That is the mystery.
Zeev
In edit, Dow cracked 10400 again after the fourth "try". Barely... |
