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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (6342)7/27/2001 10:35:21 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net   of 74559
 
from Science 20 July 2001

Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming -T. M. L. Wigley'* and S. C. B. Raperi

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recently released its Third Assessment Report (TAR), in which new projections are given for global-mean warming in the absence of policies to limit climate change. The full warming range over 1990 to 2100, 1.4° to 5.8°C, is substantially higher than the range given previously in the IPCC Second Assessment Report. Here we interpret the new warming range in probabilistic terms, accounting for uncertainties in emissions, the climate sensitivity, the carbon cycle, ocean mixing, and aerosol forcing. We show that the probabilities of warming valües at both the high and low ends of the TAR range are very low. In the absence of climatemitigation policies, the 90% probability interval for 1990 to 2100 warming is 1.7° to 4.9°C.

(emphasis Dj). So W says Kyoto would hurt US. Fine, I understand. So what are you gonna do about it? Wait for a Hugo or two per year start hitting north of Cape Hatteras?


dj
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