Telebras (TBH) & Brazil Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil

TBH 1.030

-3.7%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Z Analyzer who wrote (22432)	7/28/2001 1:18:25 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (2) of 22640

Z, not negative on the Telco's, but Brazil in general. Economy seems to be getting worse and what scares me the most is the looming presidential elections. I have been on record here for the last year as stating how much damage I felt the wrong candidate could cause and that I thought talk would start heating up about now (though I'm sure it's been common place water cooler talk in Brazil for some time). If the likes of Itamar Franco were to get elected I have to believe that any investor that has followed Brazil would sell immediately. As current governor of Brazil's 3rd largest state he defaulted on payments to the Brazilian government and the World bank and his reasoning was off the wall. Something like we didn't create the debt and therefore don't feel responsible to pay it. If you were to search this thread for Franco you will probably find a number of stories regarding this guys lunatic actions. REALLY scary stuff from a guy that may run for president. Right now I think my money is better off at home. EMT that I just sold I never really liked and it will likely have a tougher time going forward as deregulation of the telecom industry kicks in next year and the other three wirelines start cutting into the long distance business. I had only been holding it as it was so beaten down and I didn't think it would set new lows. I will be watching TNE for trading opportunities and perhaps more so some of the cellulars. If history serves as any guide, when the Brazilian market turns the cellulars could SIGNIFICANTLY outperform. Regards, Steve

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