Re: That's a good one. AMD can't even make over 8 or 9 million processors per quarter right now, and you expect...
Well, right now a lot of the market seems to be expecting P4 to scale just about to infinity next year, and for Intel to be back where it was two years ago.
But what if SOI works out the way IBM, Motorola, AMD, and a bunch of other companies say it will? AMD could be in a position to swap Austin for Gresham next year.
By Q3 of 2003, AMD could be producing 20 million X86-64 SOI Hammers per quarter. If they clock as high as P4, have better IPC, (and 64 bits, good for marketing at least) and use less power than P4, AMD might be the one with $150 ASPs. Meanwhile Intel is left trying to cover their $7 Billion per quarter costs while selling 30 million P4s at an ASP of $75. Hopefully "other" would be doing better by then, but losses could still easily exceed $2 Billion per quarter.
The whole industry, except for Intel, went for DDR instead of RDRAM - and Intel was wrong. Now the whole industry, except for Intel, is now going for SOI - what if Intel is wrong again? |
