"On Market Sentiment and Movies: a wave 2 'exercise'"
From George Lucas’ web site: “1974: Star Wars is written and design work begins”.
Right around the time of the market’s bottom, which occurred in October of 1974, Lucas writes about a world of the future, where incredibly high technology is present, along with strange creatures, brutal passions, brutal wars, with entire planets being annihilated. “Mad Max” is released in 1979. Check where the DOW was during the time of its production. Check where the market was during the time of the ‘Thunderdome’ sequels.
After several years of a Bear market, it was possible to imagine the world of the future being populated by brutal primitive people, causing death and destruction using high tech equipment. In a sense, the ‘Thunderdome’ movies, roughly coinciding with the wave 2 in the Dow, reflect the most ‘bearish’ sentiment: there is hardly any resemblance of normalcy in them anymore, the battle has been lost.
After many years of prosperity and a Bull in the markets, the images of the “DOW 100,000”, of the Gilderian “global efflorescence” and the Kurtzweillian parabolic acceleration of progress became more appealing.
What all this means? Where are we now? Where are we going?
Well, as soon as I’ll figure out the answers, I’ll be quick to post them… ;-)
In the meantime, as long as we speak about movies, here are a few more recollections and observations… The “Star Wars” is about a struggle between Good and Evil Empires; there is structure there, there are “normal” relationships and interactions between people. In the original “Mad Max”, the main character is a Law enforcement officer, who has a family, who gets up in the morning and goes to work. None of it lasts, but at least before it is all destroyed, you can see it.
In the “Thunderdome”, there is no longer structure. They don’t build Empires; they don’t seem to produce anything. They seem to live off some old supplies – of food, gasoline, ammunition… The “Thunderdome” is not sustainable. Unless something happens, it will not last. This is an absolute bottom. |
