[Disappointments]
<<<As a disapointed ex - Amati shareholder, and in light of the new GTE / WSTL announcement, do you ever have any negative thoughts or reservations about Amtx ? If so, what are they ?>>>
Tom --
At times I get discouraged, at times disappointed, but having Amati lose a contract it didn't bid on isn't one of them. You're an intelligent man and I can't believe you'd see this any other way.
As for disappointments, I can name a few. For one, I'd like CG to be out sooner. But, is this Amati's fault? Only in contracting Motorola to develop it in the first place and that's hind-sight. If we had that we'd all be geniuses.
For another, USRX. Sure, I wish that would have come to fruition, but as it turned out, the price was too high. Would I want Amati to re-negotiate all its prior partnerships and contracts? I don't even have to answer that. The idea is ludicrous.
Another is timing. It would be better for the stock if the RBOCs were ordering modems right now. That would be ideal. Or at least appear to be. Given the fact Amati has to increase their manufacturing capability and given the fact they have to wait for chips, the time factor isn't what it seems. They're using it to their advantage. Now, if RBOCs were buying CAP modems hand over fist, I'd be really depressed. They're not. In fact, the tide seems to be going the other way.
Another is lack of following by the Street. I recognize most analysts want earnings and lacking those will wait before putting their name behind a stock. If Amati had chosen to do an underwriting instead of using Soros, we would have had it. As a shareholder, I'm disappointed in the short term. After this last filing, however, I did some questioning and I have reason to believe Soros is in this stock long term and may even turn out to be a benefactor. Soros as you may or may not know is intent on bringing the Internet to Europe, and more specifically Eastern Europe, and I don't have to tell you the man has influence. I was even told he may have made some of the introductions that led to Amati getting the Siemens partnership. This information came through an analyst and has not been confirmed by anyone in the company.
Another is the absence of news on some contracts and lack of specificity on others. Because of non-disclosure agreements some contracts can't be announced at all and because of fears of shareholder lawsuits, details are left off of others. Clearly Amati is taking the safe route and shareholders are left in the dark. I've done what I can to light a candle but it's not enough. Still, it doesn't negate the contracts and eventually their value will be reflected in the stock. I can wait.
I'm racking my brain for other disappointments. Is Telstra a disappointment? Yes and no. I wish they'd get their political house in order and get on with their ADSL deployment, but on the other hand, if they'd rushed into it, chances are they'd have gone with CAP first. So, I'm not so sure.
When you question whether I'm discouraged or disappointed, you forget I'm not a trader. I'm in this investment long. Sure, I could get in and out of stocks and even make money in the process, but I could also lose money, so I've set my course and will only change if the fundamentals change. I certainly wouldn't recommend this method to anyone who's not willing to monitor every nuance of the industry and follow their specific companies with near obsessive care.
Now that I've told you my disappointments, let me remind you how far we've come:
While everyone's been screaming for the stock to go up, Amati's been developing their Allegro 800 series that's now up to 820 and working on the 840. The 810 blew the competition out of the water so what do you think the others will do? And in the background, their VDSL division has been busy developing a chip that will be out Q1'98. Forgot about that one, didn't you???? (smile) They've also got the Siemens ATM/ADSL product and SNMP and God knows what else. Jim, Tom, Bob, help me out here. :))
Amati's also been entering more trials all over the world. As the engineers told us at InterOp, "You wouldn't believe how much we're doing we can't even talk about." And of course I said, "Tell me. . . tell me. . ." And they smiled and shook their heads no.
While the trials are going on, some of these telcos are beginning to order commercial quantities. Of course this leads back to the frustration that non-disclosure agreements preclude any news coming out. They're not big orders. (One is only 15K.) But they indicate telcos are serious about ADSL and are positioning themselves for commercial deployments. After all, you can't call a press conference and announce a new service without having at least one or two markets ready to go. Say, "Beginning this fall service will be available in Seattle. . . Phoenix. . . Dallas. . . Vancouver. . . " or whatever.
Then there's the issue of the viability of the Internet. Have you read the statistics lately? Besides the few I gave the other night, check out today's IBD. It lists a few more. (I left my paper at the coffee shop so can't quote them.) The numbers are huge, believe me.
And not to be swept under the carpet, there's the fact that DMT has clearly come out ahead of CAP, not as a line-code issue but as the superior technology. If the faster RADSL's come out and prove themselves, then CAP will not be dead and the competition may continue, but, again, based on technology. However, if Westell starts whispering the CG word, you'll know for whom the bell tolls.
Cable modems have resurfaced as possible competition, and that's definitely positive.
Wireless? Again, proves the need for bandwidth and if I understand the Alcatel diagrams correctly, will actually feed into ADSL modems from the ground stations. Someone please correct me if I'm srong.
But this is enough for now.
Oh, one more: don't forget the TI chip's been in Amati's hands for nearly a month now. How quickly we forget.
But, yes, I've had some disappointments, but overall lots of encouragement, too.
I'm glad you asked.
Cheers!
Pat |
