Isopatch,
One can also take the long term view. The rounded top on FTSE is also not encouraging.
finance.yahoo.com^FTSE&d=c&k=c2&a=v&p=m50,m200,m100&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l
....and get this, IBD shows put-to-call ratio at 0.45....that's getting reaaaaal low. The five year high was 1.11, the low was 0.33.....as a contrary indicator the low ratio is very bearish. Likewise, investment advisors (bless their hearts, they only want to keep their jobs) are bullish at 52.6%, while investment advisors that are bearish is at 23.7% (the 5 year high was 47.5, low 22.6). Perhaps there is still a small window for suckering in some more fish, but that window is closing down fast. The news on the investor's optimism 'poll' today is interesting. Perhaps individual investors, having less to lose than their advisors, are more open to a negative view.
My resolve got seriously shaken this past week in the PM sector. Couldn't believe that every indication was poised for a rally, including a crossover of the 100 and 200 day major averages..... and yet we went lower. I've been buying physical gold at low points while I trade the miners, but this was the first time I wondered if it was foolish to hold gold.
Still, as I pointed out on GPM thread, the oil service chart shows the economy must be bad enough to squash enthusiasm that was building.
OSX Chart: Notice the sinking relative strength during the building of the diamond reversal top that has recently broken down.
siliconinvestor.com
There has also been sinking relative strength on the Dow since 1996, yet it went on to make incredible new highs. How can it have gone on for so long? It was defended. Even now, while the diamond top tries to signal a halt to the madness, we find rallies in defense of the bubble. However, these rallies have not been able to get past the apex of that diamond for very long, and the index is once again struggling with the reality of it all.
siliconinvestor.com
Finally, it's interesting to note there is a similar diamond on the gold chart, except gold's diamond is at the bottom of a long decline. IMO we are near the apex, it looks ready to turn up......and yet we have this diverging pullback in gold last week. Are we simply being kept on hold until August?
Any thoughts?
stockcharts.com[h,a]diclyymy[d19900101,20010713][pb50!b100!b200!f][vc60][iLb14!Lh14,3!La12,26,9!Lo14]
Message 16072688
Good luck to us all.
E. Graphs |
