Hi, elmat - Thanks for that thoughtful post. The near-term effects are easy to see in a general sense, harder to predict when you get to specifics. Your insight is most helpful.
The delay of the 3G buildout, and the consequences of the downturn might have other competitive effects - might.
I recognize that anyone would be reluctant to crystal-ball the future, especially in this downward-spiralling environment. Still, I wonder if you (or anyone else) would offer opinions on the following matters that are interrelated with the 3G question:
1 - Given the substantial delay that will be introduced in 3G buildout, what is there to stop a jump directly to 4G? I recognize, of course, that 4G doesn't exist, yet, but we are talking about a 3G buildout that will go on for years. With the accelerating adoption of IPv6, it seems to me that the resolution of VOIP/VON issues might bring that possibility forward.
2 - Recognizing that there's a lot (a lot!) of marketing, and industry hot air coming from the radio LAN/WAN guys, there is still an evident intent to port voice thru HiperLAN2, eg., and a strong desire by enterprise users to have voice as part of their WISP package. How "real" do you think this is?
"Incumbents kill to live and live to kill." ...the elmat quote of the year.
Even though the questions I've asked raise challenging technical issues, it seems to me that their success would level the competitive playing field tremendously, to the disadvantage of the incumbents.
When everyone can be reached at their network address, the CO has become meaningless. Therein lies the primary driver behind the alternatives I'm wondering about.
Any thoughts appreciated.
Regards,
Jim |
