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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 281.61+1.7%Nov 19 4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (877)7/28/2001 9:25:26 PM
From: Think4Yourself  Read Replies (1) of 95443
 
Has anyone noticed that absolutely nobody is talking about the fact that we are still headed down, and quickly approaching recession territory on a worldwide scale? All the tech stocks are pricing in an imminent recovery. Everyone is EXPECTING a major recovery next year, even though nobody is able to verbalize what is going to cause this miraculous recovery.

Given the forward guidance from companies so far, I am inclined to believe we will be in recession next quarter. Final GDP for this quarter will be revised down from .07 when the next (negative) number comes out. IMHO The end of year number will also be negative. We could easily be in recession for a year or more as there is nothing on the horizon to pull us out.

Yeah, yeah, I'm full of it. But what if I'm right? The current data supports my position better than it does the recovery position. Six months ago economists were forecasting economic growth of 8% this year. It is currently less than 1% and dropping. The majority of today's investors have never been through a real recession.

The best argument for recovery I have heard is that the interest rate cuts will act like an engine to get the economy going. My response is to look at Japan, whose interest rates have been ZERO for quite some time now. How is their economy doing? Interest rates are the brakes, not the engine, of the economy.
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