Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: KyrosL who wrote (6367)	7/28/2001 10:38:55 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Kyros, <nobody around here expects a literal collapse> It would be funny if I am actually the most bear-like of all. I have worried for 4 years about a literal financial collapse and world-scale depression. Overall, I decided that it probably wouldn't happen. But I would not be surprised if it was to happen. I have watched like a hawk for years for the crunch to come and we are 16 months into the crunch, which is a long time in today's financial markets. That length of time gives me some comfort. In those 16 months there are a lot of people who have adjusted to their grim new reality and their erstwhile assets have been revalued and often reallocated [to other people]. The courts remain under control. The financial markets continue the adjustment process. Unemployment hasn't done anything silly. Inflation is tame [more inclining to deflation]. For half the time, interest rates were actually increasing, in an attempt to tame the overheating USA economy [and perhaps to keep the squeeze on Clinton's re-election chances by making creditors squeal - that being the more cynical side of me]. Once the tide was obviously going out in a hurry, the Green$pan interventions came thick and fast [and Green$pan hopes not too little too late]. I am still watching. I am still nervous. I actually do fear a financial implosion and all-out collapse. I still don't think it will happen, but there is no limit to how stupidly people can respond to what happens around them, all too often making the situation worse rather than better. We should not price the situation on the expectation of a string of sensible decisions by those in charge. Mqurice Dow 16,000 by Feb 2002 is still on my cards. Yes, that would be one of the world's great economic turnarounds.

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