interesting point...We would change that...if people believe the market will crash then it likely won't ...hmmm....
I wasn't trading in the days of the '87 crash so maybe some of the people who were, can comment.
My understanding, & this is totally FWIW, the '87 crash happened NOT because of sellers selling, (so to speak), but that there were no buyers. So there were huge pockets of air under the bids... if a bid happened to materialize. The way I see it, a buyer’s strike of unspeakable magnitude occurred.
Mass psychology @ work <ggg>
BTW, I always trade the chart, pulling the trigger & making the trade is another thing completely.
I remember reading somewhere... if your not sure, stand aside... so I prefer to stand aside, until I sort out my emotions (trying hard to ignore them) about trading in this market. I reserve the right to pick & chose my spots. After all it is my (wifes) money.
In my case, capital preservation takes precedence over every trade that I make. And when I make a trade, I always, always, set a stop (physical usually but sometimes a mental stop).
Stops are the only reason that I'm still in the game.
The larger fundamental question going forward is this... what happens if the earnings don't materialize. What then? What if we are really entering a "new era"? Where PE's keep dropping, & bankruptcies keep increasing, & layoffs keep escalating. (Don't forget, the bubble has been pricked & know one knows the consequences of what/how the finale will play out. (although history maybe a guide) Do we go up? (some sectors maybe... hopefully Gold & silver) or Do we go down? And what if some external factor enters the game...ala Argentina, or some other crisis.
Will Greenspan bail us out? Will the consumer (who has so far bailed out Greenspan)?
I doubt it.
Regards,
Peter |
