Paul, your thoughts are sobering, to say the least. SNDK looks better when compared to other high tech stocks, including those selling at much higher ratios of stock price to book value, with much less cash on hand, with much higher debt, etc. I agree that the overcapacity of the industry, soon to be augmented by the arrival of flash memory from Samsung, does not look good for the short term. But there are certain indications now that manufacturing conditions and overall product demand are improving. What is not improving is investor sentiment toward the entire stock market, as shown in a recent survey reported by Reuters. When things look really bad, that's when I start looking for bargains. SNDK is a moderately good bargain in my view.
I also look at special situations, such as Montana Power, which has disposed of all its electric utility and related assets and assembled a fiber optic network that differs from all competitors in one important respect--NO DEBT. That is one of the characteristics that helps SNDK over this unusual period of weak demand. I think any company with sound financial structure and reasonably skilled and honest management can go a long way, even in this market, and is worth investing in. To find out more about MTP, see my new discussion board under MTP's new name, Touch America.
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