Maybe I am just an old fashioned kind of guy who can't understand the new trend. But maybe, in a few years from now, we are all talking about the lessons learned from the 3G mobile bubble and some people will tell me "Woa, you're a genius - you knew it all before!".
But do you have to be a genius to figure out that there seems to be something missing? Unless, something unpredictable happens the mobile internet looks like a huge Ponzi scheme of global proportions. Someone will have to pay for it in the end, that is of course, unless something unpredicatble happens that will magically bring economic sense into it. Under different circumstances some people would call this "waiting for a miracle" but I don't want to sound all too negative ;-)
Hit the nail squarely on the head. Absolutely one of the best thought out and perceptive posts I've seen in a long, long time.
It's becoming increasingly obvious that technology in general does not follow any new paradigms. There are simply different iterations of the same old thing: Whenever the "next best thing" is discovered (electricity, railroads, wireless, dot.bombs, etc.), and an attempt is made to make a buck out of it, a bubble inevitably follows. A Darwinian bust then takes place, resulting in survival of only the best. The survivors, however, make a lot of money.
There will be a place for the mobile internet, but not on tiny cellphones with keyboards which are too small for even Ken and Barbie to use. |
