Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: bobby beara who wrote (92861)	7/29/2001 4:28:30 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Bob. That wave count = what I'm seeing from the Fed per my recent table pounding about the tidal wave of liquidity the pumpster's raming down the throat of an economy so glutted with credit saturation and imbalances and that there's almost nothing else that money can do but cause higher commodity inflation than we've seen since the 1970s. And when you add in the resultant slower economic growth? It's: Stagflation? SI!! Gringo Dollar? NO!! Hello!!! Those low moans and squeaks of straining hull plates, accompanied by the sound of rivets popping and rushing water isn't Mother Market running a warm bath for all the little "bubblonians" out there.<G> The up turn in commodities' just like tryin' to maneuver that a BIG FAT GIRL on the dance floor!<g> She may be slow in the turns. But ya better look out when she gets movin' the other way!! ________________________________________________________________ Another important point I might as well bring up here. Folks on here and elsewhere like to talk about sector rotation. But sometimes there's also a definite time order that market sectors will rally. And there's been a very important change in commodity sector leadership that's occurred during the past year. But on the various threads I read, only see a couple of people recognized and repeatedly commented on it. Until September of last year? The energy sector was THE leader among the commodity based equity groups. It's been flat to down since that time. By stark contrast the precious metals stocks have taken over the leadership from the patch during the same period of time. This culminated with the very powerful April-June rally in the PM stocks. IMO, we're going to see more of the same in the future. This was exactly the pattern that occurred during the inflationary 1970s. Those of you who were actively trading those markets will remember that at every Intermediate Term market bottom, gold and silver would lead every rally off the broad market bottom. The oil and gas complex would follow weeks or months later. Then other commodities would follow join as inflationary expectations began to occur to more and more investors. Although I use a good deal of FA in my work, have to laugh at the 90% of fundamentalists who are always "fighting the last war". Monetary and Fiscal policy are the 1st and foremost leading fundamental indicators. But how many "fundamentalists" have even a clue about the mechanics of these prime ingredients into the macro picture? VERY few. I'm done for the day. Best regards to all, Isopatch

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