JULY 27 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - midrange
SPX - upper midrange
OEX - upper midrange
NAZ - upper midrange/borderline overbought
NDX - upper midrange/borderline overbought
SOX - overbought/borderline CLASS 2 SELL
VIX - CLASS 2 BUY(inverse to market)
NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs - +27
5 DAY TRIN - 5.60
Per my short-term technical readings, the overall market is in the upper midrange. If the NAZ/NDX continue straight up, I would get CLASS 1 SELL signals around TUE, and for the DOW around WED/THUR.
I have a 55 day mid-term pivot on JULY 13. I rechecked it, so for those who I told differently, sorry. I know, the next question is whether it is a cycle bottom or cycle low. Normally I just wait for my short-term technicals to tell me. If I get a CLASS BUY around JULY 13, then its probably a bottom and if I get a CLASS SELL its probably a top. Although I do follow cycles, my main focus is my short-term technicals.
The SOX was up nicely and is just a few points away from setting a HIGHER HIGH, which would be bullish. However the NAZ was up only 6 points. Countering the strength in the SOX was MSFT, which is only about 2 points from setting a LOWER LOW. As mentioned for months, the SOX has been a reliable leading indicator for the NAZ/NDX, but this time I am not as confident of that as I have in the past.
One negative I have is that per my short-term technicals, the VIX is about to produce a HIGHER HIGH implying that the VIX is still in an uptrend, which is a bearish hint. On the other side, we have the closely watched falling wedge which is a bullish hint.
Plenty of mixed signals; therefore I'm not confident of any direction for the longer-term, so I will just continue to play my short-term technicals and leave the longer-term predictions to others. |
