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Strategies & Market Trends : Sonki's Links List

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To: Dennis who wrote (357)	7/29/2001 7:14:52 PM
From: Sonki	Read Replies (1) of 395

xlk vs. qqq This post covers top 10 holdings of xlk and qqq and what is moving? Inception.............. 1999 2000 2001 YTD XLK 12/22/1998 66.01% -42.20% -20.70% QQQ 3/10/99 ..... 81.71% -36.94% -32.84% On Friday QQQ closed up 2% while WinTelCo closed negative . in last few months xlk has held up better then qqq. This trend is about to change which is bullish. Why? It shows institutional investors are willing to step out of the safety zone of the biggesst cap tech to 2nd levels of the top 10. I am not suggesting the very bottom level of naz 100 but I am saying stregth may come from say top 3rd to 11th. While this move is happening NDX may remain down or flat but significant change may occur in individual stocks. Finally when Msft does move bak to carry NDX higher all stocks will have particpated not just the top tier. ------------ Please feel free to differ . Notice Msft, aol, ibm weakness recently. Notice Csco is now above all it's EMA avrg 20, 50 , 100.... Postive macd (barely but +tive) sunw also following csco. Notice the differnce in Macd from april low to july low. Also if you connect 98 uptrend in sunw hits april low and same line hit july low. Sunw accroding to P&F chart double top break out. Orcl also exhibiting lot of strength. Msft may take down NDX as a short term may hit between 62.35 63.17. If msft is not able to hold then that next move is 57.60. Most likely, it will bounce from 63.x and continue back towards 70 ( very wishful thinking) . --------------- I am working on Enbd of year to jan rally maybe QQQ can go back to 62 after hitting 51 and pulling bak. Msft 80-85 Csco 25-34 Wcom 18-21 qcom should also help out a lot. ============================= QQQ -------------------------------------------------------------------- Top Ten Holdings Economic Sectors* 1. Microsoft Corporation 9.48% 2. Intel Corporporation 5.85% 3. QUALCOMM Incorporated 4.86% 4. Cisco Systems, Inc. 3.84% 5. Oracle Corporation 3.29% 6. Amgen Incorporated 2.76% 7. Voice Stream Wireless Corporation 2.42% 8. JDS Uniphase Corporation 2.34% 9. Dell Computer Corporation 2.31% 10. Sun Microsystems, Incorporated 2.06% Total 39.21% 1. Technology 71.12% 2. Health Care 10.50% 3. Communication Services 6.51% 4. Consumer Staples 4.85% 5. Consumer Cyclicals 4.71% 6. Capital Goods 2.01% 7. Basic Materials 0.30% Total 100.00% CompuStat ---------------------------- xlk ----------------------- Top Ten Holdings Industry Groups 1. Microsoft Corp. 12.36% 2. Intel Corp. 7.50% 3. AOL Time Warner Inc. 7.39% 4. Int'l Business Machines 7.15% 5. Cisco Systems Inc. 4.87% 6. Oracle Corporation 3.58% 7. AT&T Corp 3.39% 8. Dell Computer Corp 2.83% 9. EMC Corporation 2.75% 10. Hewlett Packard Co. 2.57% Total 54.39% 1. Computers Software/Services 20.47% 2. Computers (Hardware) 16.96% 3. Electronics - Semiconductors 15.13% 4. Communications Equipment 9.33% 5. Entertainment 7.39% 6. Telephone Long Distance 6.52% 7. Computers (Networking) 5.41% 8. Services (Data Processing) 3.94% 9. Computers (Peripherals) 2.99% 10. Telephone 2.79% Total 90.93%

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