For those of you who follow Bob Brinker or are following QQQ shares, set forth below is an excerpt from an e-mail service I provide that discusses a call to Moneytalk and Bob's response and my commentary.
EXCERPT from David K's Interpretation of Moneytalk, Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials and Special Alerts. June 2-3, 2001 Edition
For Subscriber Questions of Comments, Click on the Following Link and Drop Me a Line:
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CALLER OF THE DAY!
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Caller: Bob was caught off guard when a lady who was asking him detailed questions about bonds suddenly switched topics and snuck in the fact that she bought QQQ shares per Bob's recommendation at a much higher price than where the are now. Bob cleared his throat and spoke quite clearly into the microphone. His deep velvety voice thundered across the airwaves as he enunciated the words, "I WAS WRONG." Taken aback, the caller said "ok" you were wrong, but what should I do with my QQQs now? Bob told the caller that he (or more precisely "we") currently recommend holding those shares.
EC: Did I just hear Robert J. Brinker admit that he was wrong? Excuse me while I change my Moneytalk shorts.
EC: Who the heck is that "we" that Bob refers to? Bob has got to work on his pronouns!
EC: Ladies and gentleman, before going any further, I am warning you not to read the following EC if you are sensitive to criticism of daBrink or think Bob can do no wrong. You know that I tell it like it is, and right now, I am going to tell it exactly the way I see it - so feel free to skip to the next EC, because this ain't going to be pretty.
Still reading? Ok, you were warned. I was not impressed with Bob's admission of error. First of all, the fact that Bob admits he was wrong on the radio 7 months after his prediction had already gone sour in response to a direct question that slipped through the call screener isn't that impressive. Moreover, it is not whether Bob is right or wrong, but how he handles it that has me upset. Everyone makes mistakes. However, instead of discussing his error last year when QQQs quickly fell below his initial recommended price, Bob clammed up. If he had taken calls on the show, he could have discussed using stop losses to protect further downside risk. He could have talked about selling QQQs last year for a loss and purchasing another tech fund such as XLK. Indeed, I am no genius, yet these are things I was discussing in my Special Alerts and Interpretations - why couldn't Bob discuss them? What about the April 4th bottom that was triggered by positive divergences across-the-board in the Nasdaq which I discussed in my April 4th Special Alert? Bob could have discussed this inflection point on the radio (if he believed it was an inflection point) and told people that it marked a great opportunity to average into the QQQs if you hadn't followed Bob's maximum recommended investment guideline already. Again, I don't care that Bob made an error, its the way he handled it that is offensive to me. Hey, I look out for people that follow Brinker's advice - me being one of them! Bob's website QQQ discussion thread which at least provided another forum where people could ask other people what to do with the QQQs was summarily shut down in the midst of the QQQ taking a nose dive with no explanation given. What was up with that? Now I follow the Brinker-goings on very closely around the Internet, and there was a lot of clamoring for Bob to admit his mistake a while back and I think Bob felt that if he said "I was wrong" than somehow people will say, "oh, he admitted he was wrong, that satisfies me." Not in my book. The time to admit that was in November, 2000, when the QQQs were already falling below $70 per share. Clearly, at that time, whatever market internals Bob thought was going to generate a rally in the Nasdaq did not materialize. I even wrote then that I didn't see the positive divergences that had existed during the May counter-trend rally. Clearly, the election fiasco wasn't inhibiting the Nasdaq as Bob thought. Clearly, the divergence between the Dow and the Nasdaq wasn't the divergence that Brinker originally thought. It was at this time, that Bob should have been discussing the fact that he was wrong, helping educate his listeners or subscribers, and trying to figure out the best solution at that time. Unfortunately, his ego got in the way.
MORE QQQ STUFF:
EC: A couple of weeks back, I provided a link which reported that the money management company founded by George Soros, renowned for huge bets on market direction, bought $611 million worth of QQQ shares in the first quarter of this year. The news is reported in an article in this week's Barron's under the heading, "Quiet Period - With volatility, the action is in takeover stocks." This article also discusses the American Stock Exchange's QQQ Volatility Index (QQV) which is one way to measure investor sentiment about the future volatility of the Nasdaq. The QQV measures implied volatility of QQQ one-month, at-the-money options. I have added the QQV to my arsenal of sentiment indicators and think it is worth following in an attempt to glean potential short term moves in the QQQ shares. One of my subscribers Jen, did a nice job giving references - even including "ECs" to the article which is posted at this link on Suite101: (David K's ECs are becoming standard language on the net!)
suite101.com
For Subscriber Questions of Comments, e--mail me at:
davidk555@earthlink.net
Preliminary: This e-mail is not a substitute for listening to Moneytalk. It is only my interpretation and commentary of some of what is discussed on Moneytalk, along with additional educational information that I include, editorial comments about the market, helpful financial links, guest contributors and even humorous remarks. I also provide Special Alerts to my subscribers as part of my e-mail service If you want to know what was actually said verbatim on Moneytalk, listen to the show live. You can even listen to a re-broadcast of past Moneytalk shows on the Internet via the archives. The web site www.bobbrinker.com has all the links to the ABC Radio Network Stations that broadcast the show live and via the Internet. There are also free summaries of the Moneytalk shows on that web site. |
