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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: techreports who wrote (45005)7/30/2001 10:12:24 PM
From: tinkershaw  Read Replies (4) of 54805
 
Regarding BEAS market share, here is some new information:

leviticus.boards.fool.com

If Giga is correct BEAS is gaining marketshare at a rather rapid pace against the industry and against IBM. Also note that IBM does not break out these revenues. IBM puts out a lot of press releases and spokespersons in articles mention how well IBM is doing in marketshare all the time yet IBM doesn't actually release enough information to verify any of this. Interpret that any you want. But kind of reminds me of Oracle never releasing information regarding their million dollar challenge.

Anyway, that is the latest information I have in regard and it was very good news in regard to BEAS. At least if the report is accurate. If so, it clearly demonstrates BEAS pulling away from the pack. A pack that is down to two major players and 30 some add at the fringe at best players.

Now on to GMST. Since when has Gemstar been unsimitized? I just saw the movie Planet of the Apes and I swear I saw Henry Yuen's mug as one of the simian extras.

If you go by product adoption GMST certainly is in a Tornado. 20 million installed homes is just around the corner. Last time I spoke about GMST, oh, about 12 months or so ago it was 2-5 million.

My concern about GMST right now is whether or not the prize is worth the marketcap. Obviously licensing revenue (the traditional software gorilla prize) will not be sufficient to support GMST's valuation as a gorilla going forward. It will have to be the more Godzilla oriented ad revenues that will have to serve. Perhaps this is where GMST comes up short, as traditional Gorilla penetration is not sufficient. We have to wait and see if its Godzilla self can lift it to Gorilla status. In order to do so we need billions of dollars in ad revenues. In the current market conditions this is just not a realistic possibility. Can it do so in the future?

Perhaps that is why there is doubt. The Godzilla head, attached the Gorilla body, is still experimental and may not enable the poor beast to eat its bananas and survive in a gorilla persona, despite otherwise gorilla positioning in the industry.

Or perhaps not. But just wondering where all the unsimianization regarding GMST is coming from. To my eyes it is determining if this is truly a market worthy of a gorilla relative to GMST's current marketcap. I think that question is still up in the air and revolves around that Godzilla head.

Tinker
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