Looks like actual sales (after subtracting out old delivery obligations) of gold from producers is on the wane. Here's what's been reported for the last quarter from some big hedgers:
ABX, NDY:http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=16146487
AU: Book reduced from 17,023,000 to 16,268,000. Produced 1,733,000, but actual new sales to the market was only 978,000.
ASL: Produced 437K, but just delivered 252k of it to the old book without rolling over. However, appear to list Geita separately where they added 166K. Net decelerated supply: 86K
PDG: Against the grain, produced 747K, and accelerated an additional 170K in new out year hedges.
Net decelerated supply from ABX (-500K), NDY (-146), AU (-755), ASL (-86), and PDG (+170)= 1,317,000 oz or 29% of the total 4,510,000 oz prod. from the five. Will need to look at some more, but this is a significant and bullish supply variable. Natural consequence (lead indicator) of reduced reserves (and eventually production), low prices, and poor contangos.
The billion dollar question is what's causing the malaise. It's no longer excess supply from producers. Is demand that poor? Don't think so. India looks like it will have a strong season coming up. Message 16145952
IMO it's the usual suspects leaning on a thin market. |
