Observations about "Observations about this thread"
Jim, I drop by here to take a look most every day, but I haven't posted in a long time because I basically have nothing intelligent to say. I have lost money since the long-ago highs, as I am sure most everyone here has, indeed most everyone who used to populate SI in general. My personal opinion is that not that many people went broke or anywhere near to it, including Volts. It's just that we have long become resigned to have less money than we once had, at least on paper, and we realize that making any money in the current market is just too hard to be worth the time and effort. Thus we have moved on to other pursuits, enjoying all the other things life has to offer. For the long moment, at least, Si no longer has any relevancy in our lives, no longer serves any purpose.
I spend some time now pondering just what happened here, what it all means. I don't worry about it, just think about it. I have yet to see any explanation from the pros that comes anywhere near providing an answer.
I don't believe the Internet is dead. I don't believe technology is dead. I don't believe the stock market is dead. The closest I can come to answering my own question, is that we are in a sustained period of suspended animation. I believe that the entire technological universe is extremely interdependent. Each firm that composes the universe buys from others and sells to others in the same universe. Once decisions to suspend further purchases began to be made by some, a chain reaction quickly ensued that brought the entire universe to a screeching halt. I don't think anything quite like this has ever existed or been seen before, so that it is entirely without historical precedent.
If I am anywhere near correct, than of course all future "visibility" looks extremely negative. All forecasts, made through a glass darkly, will need to be lowered today, and then again tomorrow. Until someone, somewhere steps forward to be a first mover.
I personally am sanguine about the future. I don't think this is "pathological bullishnesss," inasmuch as I no longer have any investments. I might call it "logical bullishness," in the sense that I see no way this situation can last very much longer. I have friends or relatives who work in many technological companies. Virtually all of these firms have announced layoffs, some of them "massive" in media lingo. Yet, in virtually every case, the workers being let go (maybe, as these are mostly future scheduled), are excess staff hired in a period of euphoric expansion. When all is said and done, these firms will still have more employees than they had, say, a year and a half ago. Even more important, all the people I know in these firms are working longer hours than ever and vigorously pursuing a raft of new initiatives. This is all anecdotal, but it does not add up to me as anything resembling a deadening period of recession.
I myself am calmly waiting for the resumption of technological progress that I see as inevitable. I have no idea when it will begin, but I believe that when it does, it will reinvigorate the stock market with a vengeance. I don't think it will be all that long, and when it comes, I will be an active investor again. Until then, I'm just going to enjoy life and not shoot my mouth off very often. I think there's a lot of others out there like me. I hope so, because then I'll know that I am normal, and not pathological.
Regards,
JC |
