AUGUST 1 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - oversold
SPX - oversold, INTRADAY CLASS 1 SELL, INVERTED HAMMER
OEX - oversold, INTRADAY BORDERLINE CLASS 1 SELL, INVERTED HAMMER
NAZ - oversold, INTRADAY BORDERLINE CLASS 1 SELL, IMPERFECT DRAGONFLY DOJI
NDX - oversold, INTRADAY BORDERLINE CLASS 1 SELL, IMPERFECT DRAGONFLY DOJI
SOX - oversold, PENDING INTRADAY CLASS 1 SELL, IMPERFECT DRAGONFLY DOJI
VIX - overbought, PENDING CLASS 1 BUY(inverse to market)
5 DAY TRIN - 5.83
NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs - +59
Did get INTRADAY BORDERLINE CLASS 1 SELL signals, and as mentioned often INTRADAY SIGNALs are not as reliable as CLOSING SIGNALS. Having said that, the NAZ/NDX gave up most of their intraday gains. The SOX did set a HIGHER HIGH on a intraday basis, only to give it all up by the close. These are hints that a short-term top has been set. To negate this POSSIBLE short-term top, the various indices would need to break significantly above today's highs. Of course since they were
only intraday CLASS 1 SELLs, not on closing basis, I prefer to see some confirmation tomorrow, where todays intraday's highs hold, at least.
The SOX did set an intraday HIGHER HIGH, which is bullish, but gave it all back which may just be an overshoot.
Since I did not get the CLASS 1 SELLs on a CLOSING BASIS, there is still a chance that the market could still move up to a CLASS 1 SELL on a closing basis, which would mean that the short-term top is not yet set; however in this bullish senerio, the upside should be limited(not far above today's intraday highs)
As always, now the question is whether this POSSIBLE pullback will be a strong one or a weak one.
My SPECIAL FORTUNE TELLING DUMPLINGS say that I need to roll more DUMPLINGS, so heck if I KNOW for sure. If TODAY's HIGHs hold and the market moves down then that would produce LOWER HIGHs in the major indices with the exception of the SOX. Keep in mind that the last trough was a mixture of 1 HIGHER LOW, some even(possible double bottom). When I see LOWER HIGHs and HIGHER LOWs, the first thing that comes to my mind is that some sort of a consolidation chart pattern may be developing like a triangle, rectangle, wedge, pennant, or dumpling. So no strong clues as to the strength of the pullback.
On a positive side, the NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs improved a fair amount, which is a bullish hint, but not overly bullish.
In our website mutual fund account I closed the long position(UOPIX) and opened a short position(USPIX). In my personal account, I had no long position so I just opened a short position(USPIX).
Concerning our website mutual fund account, we have decided to no longer maintain the 3:45pm deadline. The main reason for this change, is that we have noticed that I often dont make the decision until right near the closing time at 3:55pm. Within the last few months I have made numerous trades in my personal account, but only a few in the website account. Also, it takes time to make my personal trades directly with PROFUNDS INTERNET or PHONE; lets just say their internet system is nowhere as fast as the online brokers - sometimes it takes a few minutes - just not a great system. So from this point onwards I will try announce my trades as early as possible, and no later than 4:00 pm. |
