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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU)

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (21056)8/1/2001 4:16:11 PM
From: uu  Read Replies (1) of 24042
 
Dear Cary:

> Pick specific stocks and use historical data to get a ballpark on their future prospects.

Take a look at JDSU's historical performance.

I guess the simplest form of justifying investment in JDSU is the following:

This past quarter they lost $43.61/shr.
The stock has been hammered from the $140's to the $8/shr range.
It has held up pretty well in the $8-$10/shr range after the huge loss.

24 months from now, one of the following 2 can happen:

a) JDSU goes out of business completely due to financial problems, and/or Internet dying.

b) JDSU will show an earnings report that is well above their current $43.61/shr loss! Even if they show a $20/shr loss it is still a 50% improvement!

I strongly believe JDSU will show at the minimum a penny/shr earnings in 24 months from now, and that will result in a huge upside movement when doing a q-q comparison!!

Bottom line, do not attempt to come up with some logic as why a stock is going up, or is not going down, etc. Do not fight the trends (regardless of how idiotic they might appear to be). Because if you do, you will simply be crushed like peanut is crushed under an elephant! Market is all about humans taking advantage of each others fears and greed!

Regards,
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