<The simple answer, when offered, is a false answer.>
Jay, that's true! It's an increasingly complex world. It's now so complex that nobody has got more than a dim idea of what's happening let alone what will happen. But, nevertheless, we are all obliged to stake out our positions to the best of our ability, as always has been the case.
We don't know where we're going but we're on our way! But maybe the answers will be simple. Maybe Alan will print a lot of loot and Japan will too and hey presto, problems all solved. Not so hot for savers who will be heavily diluted, but, Hey! [as they say in the USA], if that's the price of saving the world, the cash holders won't moan will they?
<The adjustment from Now to Next will involve navigation of an interim dark void similar to the gap between Rust-belt and Silicon Glory. I believe the US is on the cusp of a grand inflection point, where the old will have to be phased out and new grasped at. I do not know what the new will be, maybe biotech, possibly nanotech, perhaps space mining or something simpler, like bio-food.>
I think the whole world's zipping around that cusp. My bet is that "All of the Above" is the correct answer for what the new will be. Plus a lot more besides.
We do not have a surplus of people [or the price of them would be falling towards zero, which leads to wars]. We don't have sated needs. We want a LOT more stuff, services and inventions. We are, as always, hot-blooded, hungry, randy, excitable chimpoids who want to have things better for ourselves and families and who love gadgets, toys and totems. It is very good to have the price of people far from zero.
Unfortunately, the price of people is near zero in India, most of Africa and other places too, so there is potential for a lot of mayhem [and there is mayhem due to AIDS in Africa]. But even in many of those places, the value of people has been increasing, though it's far too close to zero for comfort. At least we don't have huge famines these days in boom-bust breeding cycles with genocidal wars thrown in for good measure [other than a few countries of relatively trivial global significance].
China is going gang-busters. Japan seems okay from where I look. Sure, Indonesia is icky, but they were not a significant economy in global terms anyway. Russia imploded and that affected few outside. India is on a slow road and I can't see them copying China's progress any time soon; they are still essentially Marxist - which is funny because they got rid of the British and kept the worst aspect of the British. Hong Kong got rid of the British but kept the money!
The best place to put money is not in Aztec Gold, nor fiat money on a magnetic disk [which can be badly affected by magnetic fields and maybe computer bugs], nor industrial age stocks, nor in land, buildings or other anachronisms of stone age and industrial age chimpoids. The best place is to swap that artifact of the 20th century, fiat money, which is a relic of a time when money was backed by tangible goods, for ownership of those companies which are going to produce the other side of the cusp.
I would have suggested Globalstar, but I seemed to run into a slight problem with that. Message 16158860 Which shows the risk of the new stuff, even after huge investigations. So, avoid companies like Globalstar, but buy companies like QUALCOMM, which zoomed bigger and better than any company in human history in the space of 12 months in terms of total value added from a starting point of about $3bn market capitalisation at the beginning of 1999. The trick is to know which is which. I inspected them closely and ended up owning the best company ever in 1999 and the worst company ever in 2000 [though JDS Uniphase is in competition for worst ever and it certainly had a bigger loss at $50 billion than anything].
If you can pick those which will form the other side of the cusp, you will be part of the new non-chimpoid world. The digital divide is going to increase, not decrease and it's going to lead to chimpoids remaining, like Neanderthals, in some evolutionary backwater, while the others go on to the shining light at the end of the dark void you mentioned. No, it is NOT a train coming this way.
I am not making this up as I go. Well, not completely anyway.
There is 'is' and there is 'what will be'. [Depending on your definition of 'is', which is tricky in the USA]. The important thing to do is be 'is' after 'what will be' has arrived. Which is kind of obvious, but that's what we are trying to do. Most people just cower like a frightened rabbit and hope they can stay as they are [which isn't an option when evolution comes through in the form of the four horses of the apocalypse]. Some do a maniacal leap into that dark void you mentioned, with a vision of what will be, only to go splat down a sinkhole. Others feel their way carefully along in the dark, looking for little clues which flicker in the gloom, but knowing they can't go back and that soon, what will be is. If they get it right, they will be cool dudes! New Paradigm Cool Dude Chimpoids in the bright new dawn on the other side of the cusp.
Mqurice |
