>Don't be so sure.<
Actually, I'm sure that it will not. However, if P4 is to ever reach 10 GHz, the next desktop x86 processor can not be released before P4 hits 7 GHz. Otherwise, in order to replace P4 with this new processor, Intel will kill off P4 before it hits 7 GHz. 7 GHz is a long ways off. This is four times the current peak speed grade. So, even with doubling every 18 months, this indicates the next 32-bit Intel x86 processor will emerge no earlier than mid-2004. A more likely scenario is that P4 will only hit about 3.5 GHz at 0.13-micron, about 5.5 GHz at 0.10-micron, and hit 7.0 GHz somewhere in the 0.07-micron generation. Speed grade increases are not a continuous graph. They often include discontinuities, such as the jump from 1.0 GHz for P-III to 1.5 GHz for P4, which make significant contributions to the average of doubling every 18 months. The next discontinuity will not occur until Intel's next generation 32-bit x86 processor. Thus, we can anticipate about 2.5 process generations (about 5 years) before the next 32-bit x86 processor will emerge from Intel. This would put it at probably H2 2006.
In the mean time, AMD will have moved from the K7 to the K8 and the K9, with the K10 being just over the horizon. |
