No news yet. By law, NM must file a 10-K by 6/29. Since that's a Sunday, we should hear by 6/27, assuming NM waits until the last minute. They should have righted the ship by now. We should be on our way soon enough.
Here's a possibility: NM files the 10-K on 6/27 and reports results. Q1 ends in June, so they could report results 2 weeks later. This would be an effective publicity campaign, if and only if the Q1 results are fantastic (which may be possible after the clean-up job by Safeguard). Then they could initiate discussions with interested buyers. If the Q1 results are not fantastic, we may have to wait until Q2 results in October, before anyone would want to pay $20 for NM. Also, although it's been commonplace to see the stock at $7, an excellent Q1 should lift the stock price.
If everything negative is exposed by the end of June, and NM has 2 very good quarters, the stock price will rise enough so that a takeover won't have a ridiculous premium. In other words, if Q1 and Q2 are good, I could see NM at $14 by October. A buyout at $20 would have a 40% premium, which is much more realistic than a buyout at $20 when the stock trades at $8 (150% premium). No company will pay that premium, so it is helpful if NM's price rises significantly prior to a takeover. I say this because I believe the company is worth at least $20 per share. But if it's trading at $7, someone will try to get it for less than $20, obviously.
We'll find out soon enough. But one thing's for sure: that 10-K will make for some interesting reading.
Todd |
