Your bullish scenario could well happen. I am not wedded to my bearish scenario, I know the limits of my ability to predict macro events/trends (severely limited, that is). There are several very different possible macro outcomes for the next 12 months. I think our two posts have framed the range of possible futures well. It's useful to keep the several likely outcomes in mind, and constantly check them against the facts, as those facts emerge day by day. This will change the odds of each scenario happening, in a fluid manner. I am well aware that the danger of my stance, is that I miss the bottom (expecting things to get worse than they ever do), and don't go long until the stocks have already doubled off their lows. I'm taking that risk, with open eyes, as I think the balance of risks still is toward more downside.
In the meantime, I continue to make money trading the ranges. Bought TXN at 30, 6 weeks ago, just sold it at 38. Since I post all my trades the day I make them, everyone should be aware I currently have no position (long or short) in any semi-equip, so I am not just speaking my position. At the moment, the only short position I have is QCOM put LEAPs, bought when the stock hit 65. |
