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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU)
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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (21056)8/2/2001 3:02:27 PM
From: Sampat Saraf  Read Replies (1) of 24042
 
Cary,

I looked at historical prices, JDSU traded at around split adjusted $5/shr at the time of asia collapse in Oct. 1998. The Fiscal year sales for 2001 (ending June) are about 10 times those of FY 1999 (ending June 1999). On a price/sales basis even in dire times we should see a stock price of 10*5=$50/shr based on 1998 collapse prices.
Where do you see hole in this valuation model?
They appear to have monopoly status on Fiber Optics -- a future growth engine for the economy. Which company is likely to steal this revenue from JDSU in future? Losses on a monopoly stream of revenue can only last so long, eventually the business starts charging more to get some earnings on their books. IMHO, its undervalued by traditional valuation concepts.
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