Cary:
> The hole is your use of a '98 price with 2001 sales without the use of the number of shares in '98 and 2001.
I am not sure if I understand you correctly. he gave you the 98 price as split adjusted!
But anyway, and again at the risk of repeating myself you forget one very fundamental factor:
Markets are based on a combination of logical (e.g. P/Es, P/S, actual revenues, valuations, etc.), and a set of illogical (e.g. perceptions, emotions, basic human instincts, etc.) factors. Trend is what drives the markets regardless of how logically you want to discuss the "logical" factors of the market and/or a particular stock! It all boils down to human beings taking advantage of each other's fears and greed! And that is all about it.
You really need to appreciate JDSU's technology, its position in the market and its potential impact on the economy to understand why in 24 months from now (if not sooner) the "market trends" will be in its favor (and perhaps not neccessarily any of those other logical factors you are trying very hard to point out such as P/Es, P/S, etc.) to push the stock to start its path to set new all time highs.
Real human beings with illogical emotions and mind drive a stock to the upside or downside -- and all the logic in the world can not change this very basic fundamental fact! At its present state those who are fearing the most are being taken advantage of by those who have enough greed to be patient for about 24 month from now. Today's greedy JDSU buyers if smart enough will make sure to sell when all the fear is gone and everyone else becomes as greedy as they are now when the stock starts its momentum to the huge upside!
Regards, |
