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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6513)8/2/2001 8:46:29 PM
From: KyrosL  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Mq, don't count on China to fatten up QCOM's wallet. I expect dirt-cheap chinese-made CDMA phones with correspondingly dirt-cheap (reduced rate) IP payments to QCOM -- QCOM gets a small percent of average sales price. I will be greatly surprised if QCOM gets more than a dollar or so per phone on Chinese made phones. 100 million phones a year justify less than a couple of billion of valuation -- 25 times QCOM's current valuation.

Kyros

PS. My understanding is that no foreign company ever made any substantial money in China in modern times. I doubt that QCOM will be the exception.
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