Marcos, yeah I agree that some of the ratios will not factor in as much in development types of companies, in fact, I meant to put that in as a disclaimer with you as a source for further information...ggg. Thanks for the Kaiser links. I must have missed them the first time around or forgotten about them...now where did I put that Ginko Biloba? More than likely, I was off on a tangent somewhere...Lost in the Ozone Again...as I am about to do ‘bout now.
That early Kaiser is a good find and a good read. I like what he's had to say. It sounds like he's spent some time at the track...longshots eh? My problem with bottom fishing is that I just don’t seem to have the patience for the trades to work out. I turn into my own worst enemy. Lately, I’ve gotta just keep casting into a fast river with some of the stuff or it doesn’t feel like I’m fishing at all. I guess I’m currently more into the short term in cheaply priced turnaround candidates with good volume and...ARGHH...I think I may be turning into a day trader. I wonder if there’s a local chapter of Day Traders Anonymous in town. It's gotta be time for a break.
Yeah, that “3 Ps” rule really cuts across the sectors and the BS alrighty. It’s good uncommon common sense. On the fundamentals though, I find that by whipping through the financials with a highlighter and a calculator, I have common ground for anything I get serious about. It’s kind of the leveler; and, it sure makes me look like I’m workin’. It gives ya a good place to write down things too, shopping lists and such, there’s always lots of paper involved. BTW David, por nada, I hope you get some use out of it, I honestly have...particularly in the comparisons of ratios over time...pictures begin to evolve.
Speaking of over-working things (as I often admittedly do) while I was out on another tangent awhile ago I put together a form similar to the one I put in the post. This one is culled from a couple of bankruptcy predictors (a guy at SFU has done some interesting work on the topic). Here’s kind of a basic “fill in the blanks” one, harmless enough I suppose, and for entertainment purposes only... sands-trustee.com
This one abtv.com coupled with one called the Springmont Model is about where I landed in my efforts after a considerable amount of work (remember that one Ralfph? I finally got it running but it’s still a little rough, could be the carburetor).
Altman has been discredited by some but just about everything in this world I find to be worthwhile has been at one time or another. There’s a barely-breathing SI Board on Altman’s model... Subject 26586 for anyone who is disinterested...they appear to be.
I really got into some dreary research doing that project. And all the while I wondered if I was just creating yet another time consumer...LOL. I figured that I might be going a little too far when I found this in an abstract: “I describe a simple technique for estimating a discrete-time hazard model with a logit model estimation program.”. Whoah there big fella, back ‘er up a bit.
I guess one of the things that keeps up my interest in ratios though is the record rate of bond defaults and bankruptcies. This link is quite current, although Moody's could use a proofreader... riskcalc.moodysrms.com If the bigger fish are gasping, I’d like to know which of my little fish have a chance...And the Times, They are A’Chaaaaangin’.
I just turned on the TV and what I saw makes a great argument for radio...Rex Murphy slowly rubber hosing Stockwell (yester)Day on CBC...not a pretty sight. There’s no Business Like Show Business. That Madonna’s bra story is incredible...I wonder how many times she can pull it off...the sales I mean. I wonder when she'll actually begin to embarrass herself...there doesn't seem to be a threshold in sight yet.
Man, that old farmer sure got it right...I can’t even get half way there...that’s why I’m taking a break... We’re just packing up a few essentials now so this will be my last time near a ‘puter for a bit, just a week or so. I expect my hands will begin shaking at the open tomorrow... or maybe I’ll sleep in. I’m thinking that tomorrow’s US jobless report just may have the market doing the same for awhile.
I guess the roads should be about right for a long drive, seems like there’s a nice drivin’ rain comin’ up...
Catch you guys in a week or so,
Happy Trails to youuuuu,
Lenny |
