Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (6516)	8/3/2001 1:39:03 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Mucho, why on earth would China bother peeking at QUALCOMM technology if they don't plan on using it? They can't go on stealing if they are in the WTO and trying to run a modern economy. They'll have to remain a kind of criminal enclave if they do that and that is NOT the road to riches. It's a kind of cargo-cult mentality which is short term and very limited in value. The economic incentive to build 2G CDMA is spectrum shortage. If they are short of spectrum in Europe to the tune of $100 billion, they will be much more restricted in the seething mass of China. They can't squeeze 1 billion people into GSM. They need at least 1xRTT CDMA to do it. As you say, don't look backwards and expect the world to just trundle along the same track. There are disruptive, punctuated equilibrium situations and transitions which shift the old ways - it was you who just said that! China is leaping and bounding into the globalized 21st century with the internet at the core. Don't expect them to stay in the rice paddies! That's so last century. I won't bore people worried about the great financial collapse of 2001 with the intricacies of CDMA. So I'll leave your comments about CDMA although I disagree with them. However, I think you are right that Q! had the big fun in 1999 and now it's back to the grindstone and being 'just another company'. Still a very good company with great prospects. Many of the cusp companies will be like that. Battling along and suddenly they will be recognized as world-changing successes and the market capitalisation changes will be spectacular. There have been many examples and despite the sell-off, they are still huge successes [Nokia, IDEC and many others]. The point of this thread is the refuge to head for in mayhem. I say the cusp companies are the best bet - while priced in US$ [mostly] their incomes will depend on global sales and the relative position of currencies and other means of exchange or stores of value will be irrelevant. If the dollar is up, their price will be down, if the dollar is down, their price will be up. But because the future is the post-cusp companies, they will be up or even more up depending on whether the dollar is down or up. Selecting them is the very difficult trick. Globalstar was NOT one. Neither was Iridium. Neither were the dot.gones. But some dot.coms will succeed dramatically. That's my theory, Mq

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next