*** Why Globalstar is a Zero Billion Dollar Industry *** I am going to indulge myself by reading some old posts and linking them here. Basically, "I told you so!"
A few on "This dog ain't gonna hunt", aka "Big time kidding-- to many people got caught up in the fervor, believed, and at the end of the day drank the Kool Aid". My favorite (ignored) "refrain" all along being: Demand and demographics. Which means: enough people with a need and willingness to pay for them. There were just not enough of them to make it work. As i have said here many times since 1999 ( #reply-11665407, #reply-11666902, #reply-11684987 ).
Those unwilling to learn from history were bound to repeat it... if you spent the time diligently, without religious fervor, getting under the covers of The Other Operators in this "space", such as Inmarsat and the old AMSC (American Mobile Satellite Corp, now MOTIENT) in the US or even the Australian MOBILSAT service in your neighboring country -- you would see Real Fast, Real Clearly exactly what the demand was, or rather was NOT.
I still laugh out loud every time someone on this thread says, "Geoff was right for the wrong reason", that management goofed it up. Well, you can stay in denial all you want, but in fact, Geoff was Right for the Right Reasons -- based on HISTORY of the other extant like-services.
The Dearly Beloved (Nearly Departed), like Iridium and ICO before it were just grand, wonderful, superlative visions -- but at the end of the day, bad bad businesses. There is just NOT the (drum roll please) Demand and demographics to support them as profit (or even break even) enterprises. Iridium was lucky enough to get a "get out of jail free card" because someone was able to pick up the $5Billion investment for a cool $25Million. It will be very interesting to watch this "space", especially the re-launch of ICO (which is now asking for terrestrial broadcast rights to make its service viable) and how ACes and Thuraya do, as well as, how Iridium will afford to replenish its fleet at the end of their 9 year life time -- will Daddy Warbucks have to step up to the plate??
If you are not willing to learn from history, you are just going to sadly repeat it over and over and over again.
So, next time: Fly to London and visit Inmarsat HQ, or to Reston, VA and visit Motient or even closer to home: Australia and visit the MOBILSAT folks -- find out how things that exist succeeded (Inmarsat) or "failed" (AMSC, MOBILSAT) and you'll save your Tonka Truck from dumping its load again...
Geoff |
