NUTCASE ALERT
some nutcase in germany calls for a crash? what's he smoking? -g-
(this was tranlated from german so please ignore miswording in places)
Chief strategist forecasts Crash at Wall Street The Investmentbank Dresdner small word boiler scale expects next week sharp fall in prices of over 20 per cent at the US stock exchanges Soon does the large Crash come as with the formula 1 into Hockenheim at the stock exchange? Photo: dpa of Holger Zschaepitz Frankfurt/Main - Crash Gurus gives it many, but there are only few, which predict a stock exchange failure exactly on one week. And it is not any: Albert Edwards, global chief strategist with Dresdner small word boiler scale, forecasts a collapse of the stock market at the barrier Street - thus a failure over 20 per cent - for the coming week, which will bring world-wide the markets to the quake. " we proclaimed so far still no Crash, because it gave, says Albert Edwards for it no foreseeable reason " Dresdner strategist. Now however investors should paint themselves 7 August thickly in the calendar. As trip for the failure the expert sees new US economic situation data. Thus on coming Tuesday the productivity numbers for the second quarter are published. Because a new calculation method will lead to the frightening result that it so far ago is not nevertheless with the American productivity miracle. The Potenzialwachstum, into the economy to add can produce without inflation, as before assumed about 3,5 per cent not be, so Edwards. " it might constitute only 2.5 per cent." That would have serious consequences: Because a Potenzialwachstum revised downward makes it necessary to consider the entire economic policy including the monetary political adjustment of the issuing bank Federal reserve. Right has if Edwards', then the Fed much too late raised the interest in the passed year and so crucially to the blister at the stock markets contributed. The American wirtschaftswunder would be then only one of the issuing bank financed fiction. Enterprises would have invested too much due to the false growth acceptance; and consumers would have consumed accordingly too much: " those new Economy is buried then finally ", means Edwards. " that is dynamite for the markets, the Boersianer to death will be frightened."
But many strategists show up opposite Edwards sceptically. " he is the only expert, who sees this scenario. Either the Dresdner strategist is ingenious or size mad ", such a market watcher. That sees Edwards left: It is the only Crash Prophet of 20 strategists leading world-wide. But still more probably make a sharp failure, which would come from cheerful sky. Also with view of the recent recovery at the markets very far from the window and risks thereby not only his own career but also the call of Dresdner small word boiler scale actually leans Edwards. Finally is it is after OD Yardeni the first Crash Orakel. The German Banker had at the end of of 1999 a recession and a failure at the stock exchanges had predicted and lay beside thereby completely. Other former Crash Propheten is therefore sceptical. " one can predict a collapse of the stock market exactly not on the week ", says Roland Leuschel, which had prognosticated both the crash 1987 and the recent wing over with the technology titles. Then all market users would lift themselves including the issuing banks against it. Leuschel considers therefore a Crash at present rather improbably. Nevertheless it does not want to exclude a failure on longer period also in view of the meanwhile high evaluations with the default values. " the sharp fall in prices tore itself only the technology values into the depth and to a large extent past went at the broad market. " Obviously even the bulls at the barrier Street see that similar. Thus in this week a whole number of prominent US strategists its prognoses zurechtgestutzt. But with a publicity-pregnant carried forward Crash scenario nobody dares to the public. But resists Edwards public-effective panic-make vehement. " our job is also otherwise excitingly enough, than that we would have to publish such a sensation groundlessly. " In this year the strategist was situated in each case gold correct. If it should keep still quite, Boersianer Edwards will lead own words in the mouth, which says: " good night. "
welt.de |
