Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (115585)	8/3/2001 6:33:48 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 436258

obviously, what MOST economists say about the odds is usually as bass-ackwards as it gets. there is no other group of so-called experts on the planet that is more consistently wrong. not even the metereologists come close... saw an US-based analyst on CNBS Europe today (you don't get to see those in the US version!) who had a refreshingly realistic PoV. said the market is essentially already pricing in a V shaped recovery, and next year's SnP earnings estimates which call for an over 20% increase in earnings are a part of this apparent recovery discounting. however, after a bubble pops, V recoveries have historically NEVER occurred (which makes it all the more amazing that practically every mainstream economist and analyst seems to think that it's going to be different this time). iow, at some point the market may begin to discount the alternative - and probably in a hurry, so as to maximize the pain.

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