Well, now she's predicting 1,550 for the S&P 500 by year's end -- a gain of 28%, and 12,500 for the Dow, a rise of 19 percent in five months. Anything's possible, I suppose. She's not alone in predicting a major rally, either.
Here are the complacency indexes:
ST Naz CI: 88.6, down from 92.6. Trending down from overbought levels. Bearish. Complacency remains high. CSCO, which reports Tuesday, will no doubt help set the direction of the market next week, with its outlook for the rest of the year. It's always conceivable that the CI could reverse again and head back into the 90s, but overall, it does look bearish to me at this point. There's nothing certain about it, though. S'all speculation.
LT Naz CI: 86.8, down from 87.89. Inching its way down from overbought levels. Bearish. Long-term complacency remains high.
ST S&P CI: 72.6, up from 62.5. Reversal to upside, despite yesterday's decline in the S&P. This is bullish, but the ST S&P CI is now over 70, in overbought territory. It is possible that it could ascend into the 90s. But it's overbought, so longs might want to be cautious. The bullish divergence with the direction of the S&P might make shorts cautious.
LT S&P CI: 88.9, up from 84.9. Trending up, so bullish, but overbought.
Keep in mind that the Naz and S&P CI's are both overbought in the short and long term. To me, that suggests the possibility of a move to the downside. But the market has a way of defying any predictions.
Loony phase: 99.9 percent. Full moon tonight. Bearish. Buy on the new moon, sell on the full moon. Fortunately for longs, the market is closed.
You can check your lunar landing skills here:
serve.com
Some of my trades end up like the java lunar lander. |
