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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (6641)8/4/2001 11:34:46 AM
From: Ilaine  Read Replies (3) of 74559
 
Good article - nice to see someone stating the [to me, obvious truth] about the stealth bull market in value stocks.

His take on productivity is spot-on:

>>Say you come out with a seed corn that is twice as
productive -- that is, for every dollar of seed it will grow twice as much corn
in an acre. Give it to everybody at the same price as the old seed.
Productivity will double. But what will happen to the price of corn and what
will happen to the profits of the farmers in the following year? I think it is fairly
obvious to everybody that they will be drowning in red ink and there will be
corn coming out of every silo. Productivity does not necessarily equate with
profit.
However, let us give it only to a farmer in Illinois. What will happen to his
profits? They will go through the roof. He will grow twice as much corn per
cost as everyone else and he will get rich and famous. Productivity gains are
fine if there is a monopoly. If productivity is shared by everybody it flows right
through to the consumer. . . . . Productivity can ruin you, which is what is happening.<<

I keep banging heads with people who say that productivity is a myth because GDP isn't going up.

I think he also makes an excellent point that when the US dollar finally drops, the exchange rate switch will give a boost to investments in other countries - but if the US economy cools down, which countries won't slow down in unison?
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