Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Ilaine who wrote (6645)	8/4/2001 11:53:28 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Contrary to expectations, the US job market remains strong. According to Gene Epstein at Barron's, leading indicators for the unemployment rate include percentage of respondents in the consumer confidence survey who say "jobs are hard to get," and hourly earnings. interactive.wsj.com TrimTabs looks at witholding taxes: >>Withheld income and employment taxes have grown at just over 1% over the past three weeks, the slowest growth rate since we¹ve been tracking incomes. One reason could be that the US consumer is finally feeling the impact of the corporate slowdown. If so, we would expect a much deeper than expected slump in payrolls this Friday. Another excuse could be the cut in withholding schedules effective July 1. The preliminary estimate as to the size of the cut was .5%. However, that might be too low. We are checking. Regardless, July withholding month to date is still up 2.4% year over year. Other income taxes paid than withholding has been surprisingly growing over the past few weeks at double digit rates. Why we are not sure. About one-third of "other" is capital gains. That can¹t be growing. It will be important to see if that growth rate holds up during the next payment of estimated taxes September 15. There is no doubt that corporate income tax collections are still plunging, down 29%. Ouch!<< trimtabs.com

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