Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Ilaine who wrote (6647)	8/4/2001 12:08:34 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Without fanfare or even explanation, last week the Commerce Department released revised GDP data which drastically lowered growth estimates for the previous four years. >>The overall growth trend for the years 1997-2000 thus changes noticeably. Instead of three years from 1997 to 1999 of steady growth of 4 per cent, followed by a leap to 5 per cent in 2000, there was more or less steady expansion at around 4 per cent throughout the four-year period. Indeed, the rate of growth tapered off from 4.4 per cent in 1997 to 4.1 per cent last year. This statistical revision not only reduces the economy's average growth rate in the four-year period - generally regarded as the "miracle years" of new economy-induced accelerated productivity - from 4.5 to 4.1 per cent. It also lowers plausible estimates of the sustainable rate of US growth, given that current economic conditions suggest the actual rate was unsustainable. Earlier estimates of growth suggested that the US went through three years of expansion at a more-or-less manageable rate of about 4 per cent. This was followed by an acceleration to an unsustainable pace of 5 per cent, causing the economy to overshoot and dip to this year's sub- par level of about 1 to 2 per cent. The new figures suggest that it was the 4 per cent rate of expansion over the past four years that proved unsustainable and resulted in the fall-out of the last year. This indicates that the sustainable rate of growth is somewhat less - probably no more than 3.5 per cent. It would still be an improvement on the average annual rate of around 2.6 per cent for most of the previous 25 years but not as dramatic as some new economy proponents have claimed.<< news.ft.com Even though the Commerce Department is not giving an explanation, I've got one. For his "services" to the French crown, John Law was made the Duc d'Arkansas. Perhaps the title should be awarded to another famous Arkansas flim-flam artist.;^)

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next