Political streak takes a break
After initial success, Bush agenda falters
08/05/2001
By David Jackson / The Dallas Morning News
WASHINGTON – On his way to a monthlong vacation at his Texas ranch, President Bush invited his Cabinet to a Rose Garden party Friday to celebrate their political winning streak in Congress.
Or at least in half of it.
Related content
• Bush ponders idea on stem cell study
• Bush doctors say he's 'fit for duty'
• States to get latitude in Medicaid program
After initial success, Bush agenda falters
• White House home page
• Extra content index
Although Mr. Bush said his administration and Congress are making "progress that touches every American family," his recent successes on energy and health care came in the House of Representatives the Republican House.
The Democratic Senate may be a different story.
Two months after the Democrats took control of that chamber, Mr. Bush has been wrestling them – and sometimes even Republican allies – for control of the political agenda.
The stakes include education, patients' rights, faith-based charities, oil drilling, energy conservation, prescription drug costs, stem-cell research, Mexican trucking in the United States – and quite possibly the fate of Mr. Bush's presidency.
"This is clearly a different political environment than he had in his first three months or what he thought he would have," said Norman Ornstein, a political analyst with the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.
Early in the administration, some Bush aides asked to be judged on their first six months rather than on the news media's more traditional yardstick of 100 days. Now some Bush aides might take the first 100 days. In that time, they made major strides toward the largest tax cut in a generation and an education bill that would demand annual tests in grades three through eight.
WHAT PRESIDENT BUSH WANTS, WHAT THE DEMOCRATS WANT
ENERGY
Mr. Bush: increased oil and gas production including drilling in the Alaska wilderness
Democrats: more emphasis on conservation and higher SUV fuel standards, ban on drilling in Alaska wilderness
PATIENTS' BILL OF RIGHTS
Mr. Bush: restricted lawsuits against HMOs
Democrats: easier ways for patients to sue
FAITH-BASED INITIATIVES
Mr. Bush: more access to government grants for religious institutions providing social services
Democrats: assurances that separation of church and state not be breached
MEXICAN TRUCKS
Mr. Bush: easier access under NAFTA to U.S. roads
Democrats: stricter safety standards for the trucks
SOCIAL SECURITY
Mr. Bush: allowing young workers to make private investment of some Social Security funds
Democrats: avoiding privatization of the system
SOURCE: Dallas Morning News research
Then came Mr. Jeffords. When Vermont Sen. James Jeffords switched from Republican to independent in May, he handed control of an evenly divided Senate to the Democrats – and sidetracked Mr. Bush's plans.
Some GOP opposition
Now, as Mr. Bush begins the August recess at his ranch near Crawford, he must still work toward final passage of three priorities he identified in early July: an education package, a patients' bill of rights and more leeway for faith-based institutions to receive government grants.
Those items remain hung up between the Senate and the House. And even some of Mr. Bush's GOP allies in the House have bucked him on issues such as allowing Mexican trucks into the United States.
"He is not master of the universe here," Mr. Ornstein said.
Recent successes in the House include Bush-backed plans for energy and a patients' bill of rights.
But both victories took a lot of work. Mr. Bush won his preferred patients' bill of rights only after face-to-face negotiations with a key Republican, Charles Norwood of Georgia. The House energy plan includes oil drilling in the Alaskan wilderness, but Republican opposition killed similar ideas for the Florida coast and the Great Lakes.
An earlier House vote would allow faith-based groups to obtain government grants for secular activity like drug treatment and domestic abuse counseling. But negotiations with the Democratic Senate are still required before any of those bills actually becomes law.
Under the leadership of Majority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., the new Democratic Senate has put energy and faith-based initiatives on the back burner. It passed its own patients' bill of rights, one that would make it easier to sue health maintenance organizations.
When they return after Labor Day, Senate Democrats plan to push a minimum wage increase and assistance with prescription drug costs. Democrats will also continue to attack Mr. Bush on his major accomplishment thus far, a $1.35 trillion tax cut that Democrats say robs the government of its ability to pay for needed services without threatening Social Security and Medicare.
"We're going be back into deficits, and that's what we have warned for a long period of time," Mr. Daschle said. "And that will not be a quiet experience, I can guarantee you."
Rising ratings
Still, Mr. Bush and his aides are optimistic, especially about an education bill that seeks to tie federal aid to higher standards as defined by tests. Many Democrats support the general idea, though a House-Senate conference committee is debating the dollar amount of direct federal aid.
"We are ending deadlock and drift and making our system work on behalf of the American people," Mr. Bush said Friday while surrounded by his Cabinet.
Bush aides are also buoyed by a new poll reflecting rising ratings for Mr. Bush. The Washington Post-ABC News poll gave Mr. Bush a 63 percent personal favorability rating and a 59 percent job approval rating.
The poll also had troubling news for the president. Respondents said they trusted congressional Democrats more than Mr. Bush on an array of issues, including the environment, energy, patients' rights, prescription drug benefits and Social Security.
As Mr. Bush spends August near Crawford, one major decision still is hanging over him: whether to permit federal funding for research on stem cells harvested from human embryos. Whatever his decision, it is likely to be reviewed by Congress.
Mr. Daschle and other members of Congress have said they will seek to reverse any Bush decision against federal aid, arguing that stem cells can help cure a variety of diseases.
Approval of federal aid will probably provoke reaction from anti-abortion Republicans who say that using embryos to extract stem cells amount to the taking of a human life.
Mr. Bush and Congress, at least the Democratic members, also figure to clash over federal spending after the August recess.
Democrats want to make a case against the Bush tax cut.
"In a matter of less than six months he's devastated our entire budget, the way he did in Texas," said U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio, a state representative during some of Mr. Bush's years as governor. "And we find ourselves in a real bind in a variety of priority issues, such as health care, prescription drugs coverage and education."
Mr. Bush said the tax cut was designed in part to restrain government spending. Some of his allies said Democrats may wind up handing Mr. Bush political ammunition if they insist on spending too much federal money.
"The Democrats' perspective on life is always that there's not enough money in Washington to spend," said Republican consultant Ed Gillespie. "That's a fine debate to have."
Bush aides noted that on Friday Senate Democrats – faced with a veto threat –settled for a farm bill that was $2 billion less than they wanted. Some Democrats said they may try to renew that battle in the fall.
Mr. Bush may also face more Democratic challenges on the foreign policy front.
Democrats have charged the administration with creeping isolationism, citing its resistance to international agreements on global warming, germ warfare and the sale of small arms. Mr. Bush also wants to press forward with development of a missile defense system, requiring a discard of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
Critics have questioned the way the Bush administration has handled the most recent outbreak of violence in the Mideast. They also point to the occasionally differing statements from Mr. Bush and his key foreign policy players: Secretary of State Colin Powell, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice.
"I don't know what their policy in the Middle East is," said former Rep. Lee Hamilton, D-Ind., past chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. "They're against violence, but they don't seem to have much of a policy."
Unknown obstacles
Although Bush aides can anticipate many of the challenges ahead, they know they must cope also with the unknown.
For example: the health of Vice President Dick Cheney, whose heart problems required the implantation of a pacemaker in June.
Aides said the former defense secretary continues to wield heavy influence in an administration where many officials – including the president – moved to the nation's capital just this year.
Future clashes between the Republican White House and the Democratic Senate will probably feature arguments over another Bush campaign promise: to "change the tone" in a combative Washington.
Democrats complain that Mr. Bush, despite eking out a close and still-disputed election, has governed as a hard-core conservative who peels off just enough Democrats per issue.
"I haven't seen him do anything to really try and bridge the gap on major issues," said U.S. Rep. Charlie Gonzalez, D-San Antonio. "I don't sense he's been successful in setting a new tone."
Mr. Bush and his aides said they will work with members of Congress who want to get things done but also will not hesitate to single out those they see as obstructionists.
"Americans, come September, will be watching," Mr. Bush said. "They want us to look for agreement instead of looking for fights and arguments."
Pollster John Zogby, who conducted a recent survey that gave Mr. Bush a negative job performance rating of 51 percent, said that the White House has adopted a "curious strategy." He described it as a too-conservative approach that included a massive tax cut and an energy plan that relied on increased oil and gas production.
"He moved to consolidate his Republican base rather than build a governing majority during a honeymoon period," Mr. Zogby said. "I think he has actually alienated some voters in the center."
Winning the center will decide whether Mr. Bush or his Democratic opponents ultimately prevail.
Optimistic Republicans note that Mr. Bush holds valuable high ground: the podium at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
"The one thing about being president is that – win or lose legislatively – you get to sign the bills," said Republican consultant Rick Davis.
Democrats continue to question Mr. Bush's stature. Former Clinton aide Paul Begala said that although Mr. Bush is a "fundamentally decent guy," voters increasingly see him as simply not up to the task of being president.
"He's so far in over his head he looks like Mini-Me at the base of the Grand Canyon," Mr. Begala said.
Mr. Bush himself remains confident.
"When we all come back in September, so many accomplishments are within our reach," Mr. Bush said at his garden party. "And I look forward to the work ahead."
dallasnews.com |
